USDA's latest monthly estimate, released October 9, 2009, indicates Iowa farmers are harvesting a record corn yield of 188 bushels per acre this fall. That's up one bushel from USDA's September forecast for the state average yield, and 17 bushels above the state average for 2008. This latest USDA estimate is based on surveys of the crop in the field as of October 1.

Production is forecast at 2.51 billion bushels for Iowa in 2009, up nearly 15% from last year. Forecasted ears, at 29,200 per acre, are the highest on record when compared to final counts, says Greg Thessen, who heads the Iowa office of USDA's National Ag Statistics Service. As of October 4, Iowa farmers had harvested 3% of the corn, which is below the normal 11%.

While Iowa's corn yield is up, soybean yield is unchanged

USDA's October soybean yield forecast of 52 bushels per acre for Iowa is unchanged from September, but up 5.5 bushels per acre from 2008. If that's the yield that ends up actually being harvested, Iowa's soybean crop this fall will be nearly 496 million bushels, up 10% from last year, but a 10.4 million bushel decrease from the September USDA forecast.

The decrease from last month is the result of a 200,000 acre reduction of planted and harvested acres, says Thessen. Forecasted pods with beans, at 1,878 per 18 square feet, are up slightly over 8% from October 2008. As of October 4, 2009, soybean harvest in Iowa was 20% complete, 13% behind last year and 27% behind normal.

U.S. is also forecast to harvest record corn yield in 2009

For the nation, corn production is forecast at 13 billion bushels for 2009, up slightly from last month and 8% higher than 2008. Based on conditions as of October 1, the U.S. yield this fall is expected to average 164.2 bushels per acre, up 2.3 bushels from USDA's September estimate and 10.3 bushels above last year. If realized, this yield will be the highest on record and total production will be second only to the record set in 2007.

Yield forecasts remained unchanged or increased from last month across the Corn Belt, Great Plains and Ohio Valley where warm, dry weather during much of September helped push the late-developing corn crop towards maturity. Light frost was reported in parts of the northern tier of the Great Plains and Corn Belt in late September. However, temperatures were not considered low enough to terminate crop growth. Based on USDA information, acreage updates were made in several states and farmers now expect to harvest 79.3 million acres for grain, down 1% from the September forecast but 1% above 2008 harvested acreage.

U.S. is producing a record soybean crop this fall

Soybean production for the U.S. in 2009 is forecast at a record high 3.25 billion bushels, up slightly from the USDA September forecast and up 10% from last year. Based on October 1 conditions the U.S. yield is expected to average 42.4 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last month and up 2.7 bushels from 2008. If realized, this will be the third highest yield on record.

Compared with last month, soybean yields are forecast higher or unchanged in all states except Michigan, Mississippi, Ohio and New York. The largest decrease in yield from the September forecast is expected in Mississippi where persistent rain during the last two weeks of the month increased the potential impact of disease. Increases of 2 bushels are expected in Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Virginia. If realized, the forecasted yield in Alabama, Georgia and Nebraska will be a record high and the forecasted yield in Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and Pennsylvania will tie the previous record high. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 76.6 million acres for soybeans in 2009, down slightly from the previous estimate but up 3% from 2008.

Source: USDA October 9, 2009 Crop Report

Expected record 2009 U.S. corn crop isn't in the bin yet

"If realized, this will be the highest U.S. yield on record and U.S. corn production will be the second largest, behind 2007 by only 20,000 bushels," notes Tim Burrack, a farmer and Iowa Corn Growers Association leader from northeast Iowa. "Notably though, both the price and ability to harvest may be compromised due to cold, wet conditions across most of the Upper Midwest in October."

"I understand that right now some farmers might be concerned about the impact of this month's cold, wet weather on the quality of their harvest and the price they will get at market," adds National Corn Growers Association President Darrin Ihnen, who farms at Hurley, S.D. "We know our record corn supply will greatly benefit the American consumer and further demonstrates our growers' level of farming excellence despite the many challenges we may face from the weather each growing season."

Iowa Soybean Association responds to USDA crop report

According to the October USDA Crop Report, U.S. production is expected to be up from last year. Soybean production nationwide is now projected at 3.250 billion bushels. That is only slightly higher than the September estimate of 3.245 billion bushels, but up 9.5% from last year's crop. For Iowa, estimated harvested acres dropped while yield remained the same.

According to Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) CEO Kirk Leeds, "This report does not contain any big surprises for Iowa. The market has been anticipating a large U.S. crop, but it seems the market also believes long-term demand trends for soybean meal and soybean oil will continue to move upward. At the same time, there is uncertainty about the upcoming South American crop."

Delbert Christensen, ISA president and a soybean grower from near Audubon in western Iowa, recently represented the association in signing a trade agreement with a Taiwanese delegation, in which they declared their intention to purchase 110 to 118 million bushels of U.S. soybeans in 2010 and 2011. In addition, groups from China, Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam have also traveled through the state in recent weeks, evaluating the crop and expressing enthusiasm about purchasing U.S. soybeans and soybean meal.

Despite global economic problems, bean demand stays strong

ISA director of market development Grant Kimberley reports that this is the third consecutive year of record soybean exports and the sixth record year in the last decade. In 1991, exports accounted for 40% of U.S. soy production; in 2008, 58%; and in 2009, 54%.

"Obviously, in spite of the downturn in the world economy, global demand for soybeans remains strong," says Christensen. "A good supply means we will be able to meet our customers' demands, especially considering South America's current lack of supply."

Christensen added a note of caution about the anticipated crop. "Meanwhile, weather is still a factor," he says. "Much of the state has been having just enough rain to keep combines out of the fields. If delays last too long, we run a risk of harvest loss." On October 5, the USDA weekly Crops and Weather report showed that only 20% of Iowa's 2009 soybean acreage had been harvested, well behind the five-year average.