By Isis Almeida and Mario Parker
When the U.S. forged a trade truce with China last month, President Donald Trump boasted that the largest soybean importer was back to buying “tremendous amounts” of American supplies.
Chicago futures rallied in the days around the accord. But in the weeks since, prices have retreated as the benefits for China become clearer.
While both Chinese buyers and U.S. farmers are casualties of tit-for-tat tariffs, the truce initially was seen as a major boon for American suppliers, with expectations of about 10 million metric tons in Chinese purchases. But China is said to have bought about half that amount and, by dipping its toe back into the U.S. market, it not only generated goodwill for the trade talks, it also managed to lower the premium for soy from Brazil, its other major supplier.
“Was that all strategically planned? I don’t know, but the Chinese got the best of both worlds," Steve Nicholson, a senior analyst at Rabobank, a leading lender to the agricultural industry, said in an interview. “They’re some of the best traders in the world.”
Last year, the Brazil premium skyrocketed after China slapped a retaliatory tariff on U.S. beans and Chinese buyers stepped up South American purchases. The price gap between Brazilian and U.S. crops narrowed to just $4 a ton earlier this month from $20 about a month ago, said Tarso Veloso, an analyst at Chicago-based consulting firm AgResource, which advises growers in both countries.
Brazil Bargains
For the U.S., that means China is probably going to revert to buying beans from Brazil when supplies from the current harvest start filling silos at top ports from February or March, Veloso said. Brazilian growers planted soybeans earlier than usual last year, partly because they expected to benefit from the U.S.-China trade war and the weather was favorable.