Farm Progress

Optimism about prices in Brazil

A series of pieces of good news lighten moods in the country’s ag sector.

James Thompson, Author

April 10, 2018

2 Min Read
Mailson Pignata/ThinkstockPhotos

Brazilian political big shots don’t often get convicted, much less sentenced to jail time, but that’s just what happened to former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The man’s partisans are disappointed, of course, but most Brazilians enjoyed the judicial breath of fresh air the sentence brought. But there are some other things putting a spring in the step of producers in the South American country.

A short Argentine soybean crop this year and the promise of better coming prices for Brazilian beans, given President’s Trump follow-through on promised steel and aluminum tariffs, are putting a spring in Brazilians’ step as they enter the Southern Hemisphere Autumn. As I wrote before, the Brazilians stood to lose out if increased tariffs ended or slowed its steel trade with the U.S. But the South American country was one of a handful of places to earn at least temporary exemptions from the new tariffs.

At the same time, producers read with interest about USDA’s reduction in the coming American soy crop size, and were able to take some heart. An uptick in the value of the U.S. dollar over the week contributed good feelings, as long as exchange rates tick back down by the time it comes to buy inputs for the 2017-18 crop. Meanwhile, premiums at Brazilian ports climbed.

Prices up in Brazil

“The increase in overseas prices made them explode in Brazil,” an analyst for AgRural, a consultancy, was quoted as saying. That may not last forever, but spot soy prices at several points across the country were the highest they’ve been since December 2016. But, as Farm Futures’ Bryce Knorr points out, U.S. prices haven’t taken a colossal hit, either.

Brazil can’t sell all its beans to China—and it probably couldn’t sate the Asian giant’s appetite, even if it were to forego its mandatory biodiesel program and shop elsewhere for all its own domestic needs to feed all those hogs and broilers. However, the Brazilians have still had a pretty good week.

The opinions of the author are not necessarily those of Farm Futures or Farm Progress.

 

About the Author

James Thompson

Author

James Thompson grew up on farms in Illinois and Tennessee and got his start in Ag communications when he won honorable mention in a 4-H speech contest. He graduated from University of Illinois and moved to Tocantins, Brazil and began farming. Over his career he has written several articles on South American agriculture for a number of publications around the world. He also edits www.cropspotters.com, a site focusing on Brazilian agriculture.

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