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Factors I see that could push bean prices higherFactors I see that could push bean prices higher

Have you thought any of these factors might come into play for soybean prices?

Kevin Van Trump

October 27, 2017

1 Min Read

Soybean bulls continue to talk about strong demand and variable yields from the U.S. harvest. Thoughts are the USDA may continue to tick back their current yield forecast and eventually tighten the domestic soybean balance sheet.

Bears aren't disputing the possibility but still see no reason to add risk-premium to the current price, thinking both domestic and global supplies will remain more than ample. Technical, the NOV17contract has broken nearby support, falling below the 200-Day Moving Average at around $9.75 per bushel. Keep in mind, NOV17 option expiration for soybeans, meal, and oil is this Friday, October 27th. First Notice day for NOV17 futures is next Tuesday, October 31. This could certainly create a bit more movement in the market.

Globally, the bears are talking about EU soybean imports being down -15% to -20% this year. Bulls, however, continue to talk about possible weather complications inside South America. There's talk that some important areas in Brazil may remain dry and some areas in Argentina too wet.

I'm also keeping an eye on rumors and talk that Argentine government officials might reduce their export tax on soybeans. Obviously, a reduction in their export tax would put more soybeans in the global supply chain. Staying with my previous thoughts that we are rangebound for the time being, between $9.20 and $10.20 per bushel.


About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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