Farm Progress

As bean prices go lower, are the macro markets still intrigued?

Price experts are closely watching the soybean crop conditions as conditions fall in certain states.

Kevin Van Trump

August 1, 2017

2 Min Read

Soybean prices are again under heavy pressure as the USDA raises crop conditions to 59% now rated "Good-to-Excellent".

The bulls however, are pointing to the fact Iowa again deteriorated, falling -2% to just 60% rated GD/EX vs. 83% last year. The bulls are also pointing to conditions in North Dakota falling by another -7% to just 34% rated GD/EX vs. 73% last year. The only other states showing deteriorating conditions last week were Kansas, Tennessee and North Carolina.

On the flip side, the bears are pointing to conditions in Illinois improving by +7%, but they are still showing just 66% of the crop in GD/EX vs. 77% last year. Conditions in Indiana also improved, but is just 51% rated GD/EX vs. 71% last year. South Dakota was also raised higher by +3% this week, but is only rated 28% GD/EX vs. 60% last year.

In other words, yes conditions improved, but many states are still well below conditions we've seen the past couple of years. The USDA also reported 82% of the U.S. crop was "blooming," vs. the 5-year average of 80%, and that 48% of the crop was setting "pods" vs. the 5-year average of 45%. Despite improving crop-conditions, I still believe we could see a longer-term bullish story.

Nearby however, improved weather looks as if it could create some headwinds. The outside macro markets seem to be turning more bullish and keep me intrigued in regard to the upside. Below are some specifics regarding current soybean crop-conditions and comparisons to last week and last year.

 

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States "IMPROVING" 

Illinois raised higher by + 7% to 66% vs 77% last year 

Mississippi raised by +7% to 69% vs 70% last year

Indiana raised by +4% to 51% vs 71% last year 

Kentucky raised by +3% to 73% vs 71% last year 

South Dakota raised by +3% to 28% vs 60% last year

Louisiana raised by +2% to 85% vs 79% last year 

Missouri raised by +2% to 65% vs 70% last year 

Wisconsin raised by +2% to 74% vs 88% last year

Arkansas raised by +1% to 70% vs 58% last year

Michigan raised by +1% to 66% vs 58% last year 

Minnesota raised by +1% to 73% vs 80% last year

Nebraska raised +1% to 60% vs 76% last year 

Ohio raised by +1% to 48% vs 58% last year 

 

States "DETERIORATING"   

North Dakota lowered by -7% to 34% vs 73% last year

North Carolina lowered by -7% to 64% vs 68% last year

Tennessee lowered by -7% to 72% vs 74% last year

Kansas lowered by -4% to 51% vs. 58% last year 

Iowa lowered by -2% to 60% vs 83% last year 

 

About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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