Farm Progress

Bullish or bearish on corn use and demand? The USDA report could lend some insight on Friday.

Kevin Van Trump, Founder

January 9, 2018

1 Min Read

Corn bears continue to keep a stranglehold on the market. The funds are thought to be holding a massive short position and do not want to voluntarily release their grip. The bulls continue to point to production in South America currently being over-estimated. There's talk that Brazil's second-crop acres will be much lower than the USDA and the trade estimate. There's also talk that the Argentine crop is overstated, as dry conditions coupled with some heavy heat in a few areas could create pollination problems and reduce the top-end of the yield estimate.

Here at home, there's a little balance sheet battle taking place as the bulls talk about strong ethanol numbers and the bears point to disappointing exports. Feed numbers are also being heavily debated. It will be interesting to see how the USDA slices the demand pie in the yearend report on Friday.

My opinion: It doesn't really matter as we will continue to stay in what's deemed an "over-supplied" environment. With that being the case we need to see more drastic cuts in production. As a longer-term bull, I hope to see some reductions to the South American crop and early estimates for U.S. corn acres start to pull back a bit. I've already heard talk of perhaps more spring wheat acres replacing corn to the North.

There's also some early forecast talking about perhaps a wet Spring which could create planting complications. Keep in mind, we don't get an accurate U.S. corn acreage number from the USDA until the March 31st report. 

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About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump


Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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