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Corn traders continue to monitor South American weather, Chinese policy, Brazilian politics and the pace of U.S. planting. Really nothing has changed much in the past 24 hours.
Weather in Argentina is arguably less bullish as many locations catch a drier forecast over the next few days. Producers inside Brazil are still trying to asses the damage to the second-crop corn caused by too much heat and not enough moisture. Several sources have now lowered their Brazilian crop production estimate to sub-80MMTs.
The Chinese have yet to make an "official" announcement about how they are going to move their glut of domestic corn. Several insiders think the Chinese may be keeping the corn market artificially inflated since they are holding over 50% of the worlds current surplus. A major break in price would obviously devalue the supply they are getting ready to sell on the open market.
Technically there is still stiff resistance for the new-crop DEC16 contract up between $4 and $4.10 per bushel. Here at home the latest USDA data showed the U.S. crop 45% planted, which puts us on the same pace as last year, and well ahead of the 30% average for this date. Below are some of the specifics from the latest USDA data.
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Colorado +12% planted last week to 19% vs. 22% average ---- 0% emerged
Illinois +24% planted last week to 66% vs. 38% average ---- 25% emerged
Indiana +19% planted last week to 30% vs. 22% average ---- 4% emerged
Iowa +17% planted last week to 57% vs. 28% average ---- 7% emerged
Kansas +7% planted last week to 50% vs. 41% average ---- 27% emerged
Kentucky +14% planted last week to 64% vs. 38% average ---- 29% emerged
Michigan +5% planted last week to 8% vs. 12% average ---- 0% emerged
Minnesota +14% planted last week to 59% vs. 27% average ---- 5% emerged
Missouri +8% planted last week to 89% vs. 47% average ---- 57% emerged
Nebraska +10% planted last week to 26% vs. 31% average ---- 7% emerged
N. Carolina +9% planted last week to 84% vs. 80% average ---- 55% emerged
N. Dakota +10% planted last week to 16% vs. 14% average ---- 1% emerged
Ohio +9% planted last week to 27% vs. 17% average ---- 1% emerged
Penn +20% planted last week to 34% vs. 12% average ---- 2% emerged
S. Dakota +6% planted last week to 12% vs. 21% average ---- 0% emerged
Tennessee +15% planted last week to 80% vs. 57% average ---- 45% emerged
Texas +14% planted last week to 66% vs. 71% average ---- 47% emerged
Wisconsin +12% planted last week to 22% vs. 12% average ---- 1% emerged
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