Farm Progress

The weather is playing a big role in the grain market place this week.

Kevin Van Trump, Founder

October 31, 2018

1 Min Read

Bulls continue to talk about U.S. production estimates pulling back. The recent forecast for heavy snow in parts of the upper Midwest and delays out East are cause for some concern. Bulls also point to logistical restraints and problems in South America, especially if they are going to be forced to supply China with most of their soybeans. Bulls also point to a significant reduction in Chinese and global corn stocks.

Bears see the same shrinking of the global balance sheet but deem supply to be ample or adequate not to create a shortage. Bears are also banking on a big jump in South American production compared to last year. The verdict is obviously still out on that call, as the weather will play a huge role as the season progresses.

Bears also seem to be punching a few holes in what has been an extremely strong demand growth story. The U.S. exporters are perhaps seeing more than expected competition from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine.

Longer-term, weather becomes a huge "wild-card" and could create upside momentum. But from my perspective, that's still way off in the horizon.

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About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump


Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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