Weekly Grain Movement – China steps up, but was it enough?Weekly Grain Movement – China steps up, but was it enough?

Were weekly export inspections “good” or “bad” for the week of Nov. 16? That all depends on what it’s being compared to.

With soybeans, for example, the week’s volume of 78.3 million bushels was on the high end of trade guesses that ranged between 66 million and 80 million bushels. Even so, volume was down slightly from the week prior (80.3 million bushels), and moderately from a year ago (98.3 million bushels). Year-to-date totals for the 2017/18 marketing year, which began Sept. 1, are up to 705 million bushels – down from 2016/17’s pace of 806 million bushels.

China once again captured nearly 80% of the total volume, with 61.8 million bushels. Other top soybean export inspections for the week included “Other” (8.9 million bushels), the Netherlands (3.1 million bushels), Saudi Arabia (2.6 million bushels) and Egypt (2.4 million bushels).

Corn export inspections also came in on the high end of trade guesses (19 million to 27 million bushels), with 24.9 million bushels. That was well above last week’s total of 15.7 million bushels but lagged behind a total of 34.5 million bushels this week a year ago. The weekly rate needed to meet USDA’s forecast is now up to 28.7 million bushels, and the year-to-date totals for the 2017/18 marketing year is still well behind the pace set a year ago, with 259 million bushels versus 462 million bushels.

Mexico was the top corn export inspection destination (as it is many weeks), with 11.6 million bushels. Other top destinations included Peru (4.1 million bushels), Colombia (2.2 million bushels), Saudi Arabia (2.8 million bushels) and Panama (1.0 million bushels). 

Wheat barely made the low end of the trade guess range (9 million to 16 million bushels), with 9.5 million bushels in export inspections. That’s down slightly from last week’s total of 11.3 million bushels and well behind the total of 15.9 million bushels this week a year ago. The rate needed to meet USDA’s forecast now stands at 19.3 million bushels, and year-to-date totals for the 2017/18 marketing year, which began June 1, has reached 441 million bushels.

Top destinations for wheat export inspections saw fairly even distribution among the Philippines (2.6 million bushels), Algeria (2.3 million bushels), Ethiopia (1.7 million bushels), Mexico (1.6 million bushels) and “Other” (1.3 million bushels).