Missed some market news this week? Here’s what Bryce Knorr and Ben Potter have been writing about.

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Officials from the U.S. and China continue to make positive comments about their hopes the first phase of a trade deal will be signed in November, though details of any agreement remain scarce. Soybeans moved higher again overnight after funds turned bullish for the first time in more than a year, while corn and wheat found support from a weaker dollar.

U.S. and Chinese officials continue to put out mostly positive statements about potential for them to complete the first phase of a trade deal. But in the final analysis the proof will be in the pudding. For farmers that means large purchases of U.S. farm products. Hopes for a deal helped soybeans bounce back overnight after selling Monday despite crop ratings that were steady to better last week.

Grain markets attempted a modest rally overnight but gave back gains when the mood darkened in financial circles due to uncertainty over when and how Britain will leave the European Union. Traders continue to wait for confirmation of new soybean purchases by Chinese buyers who may opt for cheaper new crop supplies from Brazil.

With USDA’s next production estimate still two weeks away, news about demand continues to drive price swings. Traders will search the latest export sales report this morning for clues about Chinese buying because there’s been no official confirmation of new purchases so far this week by USDA. Prices edged higher overnight in most contracts.

Crop progress

There’s nothing average about this year’s crops – including the averages. While average yields and crop ratings slipped over the past week, farmers reporting Feedback From The Field last week reported yields that were very bad in some places but good in others.

The 2019 corn harvest is still sputtering along, according to USDA. Soybean harvest progress has fared somewhat better, meantime, after nearing the halfway point this past week.

Market recaps

Grain futures didn’t see the needle jump much in either direction overnight, as corn prices held steady, wheat tacked on minor gains and soybeans eased fractionally. Traders are still thirsty for new U.S.-China trade updates – even shrugging off word that China may buy $20 billion in agricultural goods this coming year after digesting the fact that this only pushes purchases back to pre-trade war levels.

Soybeans spilled significantly lower today after failing to get any concrete details regarding the latest round of U.S.-China trade negotiations (despite an optimistic statement from the U.S. Trade Representative’s office), and amid an absence of new Chinese soybean purchases. Harvest pressure applied additional headwinds. Wheat prices were narrowly mixed in Friday’s session, with corn finishing with fractional losses.

Exports

U.S. grain export inspections for the week ending Oct. 17 showed signs of improvement, especially for soybeans – but that effort came despite major participation from China, notes Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr.

For the week ending October 17, good news was hard to find when it came to reviewing the latest round of export sales data from USDA. That was true of corn, wheat and especially soybeans.

Outlooks

Soybean outlook - Soybeans benefited from a perfect recipe for stronger basis last week: Good export demand, decent crush margins, tightening supplies and a below average harvest pace all combined to boost bids in the cash market.

Wheat outlook - SRW accounted for less than 15% of this year’s crop. But it accounts for two thirds of total futures volume in wheat and dwarfs the other contracts in options. Part of that is location. When HRW was known as Kansas City Wheat, it was traded in that city. The action was in Chicago, and that’s where people went to trade wheat.

Fertilizer outlook - Just as farmers were starting to get caught up on harvest, another big storm moved through the Midwest. That could keep fall fertilizer applications slow, and the prospect of excess supplies headed into winter sent costs for most nutrients lower last week.

Energy/Ethanol Outlook - It’s not unusual for diesel prices to start falling towards the end of October. Most years farmers are wrapping up harvest, so the added boost agriculture gives demand is starting to fade. This year farmers aren’t even halfway done cutting fields, but fuel prices could still be worth looking at depending on where your suppliers buy from.