Farm Progress

Deterioration in crop conditions makes corn bulls happy

So far, the crop tour shows yields higher than last year.

Kevin Van Trump, Founder

August 21, 2018

2 Min Read
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Corn bulls are happy to see the USDA lower crop-conditions down from 70% to 68% rated "Good-to-Excellent". The biggest deterioration came in North Dakota which was down -9%, from 79% to 70% rated GD/EX on continued dry conditions. Colorado was reported down -6% from 63% to 57%; South Dakota down -4% from 69% to 65%; Minnesota down from 77% to 74% and Wisconsin down 78% to 75%; Iowa down -2% from 75% to 73%; Kansas down -1% from 47% to 46%.

States that showed some improvement were: Kentucky +4%; Michigan +3%; Missouri and Pennsylvania +2%; Nebraska and Ohio +1%. Illinois, Indiana, North Carolina and Texas were left "unchanged". The USDA is showing corn in the "dough" stage at 85%, which is well ahead of the 5-year average of 72%. Corn in the "dented" stage is reported at 44% vs. the 5-year average of 26%.

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour kicked off yesterday and estimates were released last night for both Ohio and South Dakota. Ohio is forecast at a yield of 179.57 bushels per acre up +9% from last year's 164.62 tour yield estimate. The 3-year tour average for Ohio is 153.98 bushels per acre. South Dakota is forecast at a yield of 178.01 bushels per acre up about +20% from last years 147.97 tour forecast. The 3-year yield average for South Dakota is 154.56 bushels per acre.

The eastern leg of tour now moves on to Indiana, while the western leg of the tour will be in Nebraska.

From a technical perspective, heavy resistance is still seen in the $3.90 to $4.10 range. On the downside, $3.50 still appears to be longer-term support.

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The opinions of the author are not necessarily those of Corn+Soybean Digest or Farm Progress.

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About the Author

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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