June 13, 2018
Corn prices are steady to slightly lower to start the morning, but bulls are happy to see the USDA lower U.S. ending stocks for both old and new-crop.
The market is trying to claw itself back after tumbling some -30 cents during the past three weeks, but ongoing worries about trade and no major widespread weather worry here in the U.S. keeps the upside somewhat limited nearby. I've included below some of the recent USDA highlights.
Looking forward, I still believe it's going to be all about U.S. weather and trade headlines being generated out of Washington. I'm also hearing more talk that both domestic and global ethanol demand is pushing higher, which will help keep our strong demand story in play.
As a producer, I still have no desire to price any additional bushels on the break. As a spec, I remain a longer-term conservative bull, still believing prices ultimately move higher.
U.S. Yield - Unchanged at 174.0 bushels per acre.
U.S. Demand - Old-crop exports raised higher by +75 million bushels. New-crcrop corn used for ethanol raised higher by +50 million bushels offsetting a -50 million-bushel reduction in food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of sorghum; new-crop corn used for Feed and Residual lowered by -25 million bushels. new-crop exports left "unchanged".
Ending Stocks - New-Crop lowered by -105 million bushels from 1.682 down to 1.577 billion bushels; Old-Crop lowered by -80 million bushels from 2.182 to 2.102 billion.
Argentine Corn - Left "unchanged" at 33.0 MMTs
Brazil Corn - Lowered from 87 down to 85 MMTs, as below-normal rainfall in the Center-West and South during May reduces yield prospects for second-crop corn. Area is also reduced based on the latest government statistics.
Russia Corn - Russia corn production is down from 44.93 to 40.93 based on government data indicating lower-than-expected planted area.
Average U.S. Farm Price - Bumped higher to a range of between $3.40 to $4.40 per bushel.
About the Author(s)
Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead.
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