According to maps produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, Indiana has a 40% chance to see above-normal temperatures during August.

Does that mean it’s going to be downright hot every day? Not necessarily, notes Ken Scheeringa, associate state climatologist. There are two reasons why you shouldn’t necessarily expect every day to be toasty.

First, just because the trend for the entire month favors warmer-than-normal temperatures doesn’t mean every day will be warmer than normal, Scheeringa says. There could be days or strings of days that are normal or even below normal. What the forecasters are saying is that there is a chance that when all temperatures are averaged for the entire month, the average will be above normal.

There is also little indication as to how far above normal the temperature might be, on average.   

For precipitation, there is an equal chance that Indiana will be above normal, at normal or below normal for August. The statewide maximum average temperature for August is 83.5 degrees F. If the average temperature in August 2017 turns out to be 84.5 degrees, then the month would still be above normal.

Percentages and forecasts
The second reason Scheeringa says there is no way to know if it will be hot every day is because the forecast isn’t foolproof. The long-range forecasters tag the percentage that temperatures will average above normal at 40%. That means they are seeing indications that lead them to believe there is a reasonable chance temperatures will trend above normal.

Liken this to daily weather forecasts for whether or not it will rain. Forecasters typically attach a percentage. If there is a 10% or 20% chance of rain, you’re likely not too worried about taking an umbrella. By the time you get to 40%, you start factoring the possibility of rain into your schedule with a bit more belief that it might actually rain.

Speaking of rain, long-term forecasters saw no indication one way or the other on rainfall for August. That means there’s an equal chance it could be wetter or drier than normal, or just normal. There was no indication of a later-summer drought at this time.