Farm Progress

Fewer Brazilian corn ares, smaller Argentine crop and fewer U.S. acres could impact prices.

Kevin Van Trump, Founder

January 20, 2018

2 Min Read
vencavolrab/iStock/ThinkStock

Corn bulls are happy to see the market trade back above $3.50. Unfortunately, there's still major long-term technical resistance in the MAR18 contract up between $3.60 and $3.70 per bushel. The DEC18 new-crop contract is right here on the doorstep of heavy resistance between $3.85 and $3.95 per bushel.

From a fundamental perspective, I continue to hear talk that producers in Brazil will not be planting the number of second-crop corn acres they've planted the past couple of years. I personally don't think the market has taken this into full consideration. The bulls are also talking about the USDA currently overestimating the Argentine crop. It sounds like abnormally dry conditions have taken a toll on crop production in a few important locations and the crop could continue to see complications. Bottom-line, I don't see either the Brazilian or Argentine crop estimate getting larger from here.

I'm also not so certain we are going to see U.S. producers plant the +90 million corn acres many have been forecasting, especially if prices don't rebound to some degree. I continue to keep a longer-term bullish tilt but remain respectful of the fact we might be in a temporary nearby news vacuum. Meaning a lack of sustained bullish headlines nearby might make it difficult to turn the trade around and in the opposite direction. With the traditional fundamentals being this bearish it seems like we need a combination of punches, something we might not get for several more weeks.

As a spec, I continue to like the thought of building longer-term bullish strategies on the larger breaks. I still like the thought of taking small bites between here and $3.20. As a producer, I'm staying patient. Old-crop cash sales that must be made, need to be renowned in some limited-risk capacity.

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About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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