September 27, 2016
This is a nerve tester for sure. I fully understand that if incorrect on my analysis, the next tier down lies south of $100.00.
The wave count continues to unfold, and the unfortunate of following such opens one up to the risk of having to have a move confirmed before taking action.
In this case, with the anticipated initial move up being impulsive, one would want to see whether prices fell through the current support levels, deemed the wave 2, or if the market can hold them before making further transactions.
With most contract months hovering at levels that I anticipate need to hold, much lower would lead me to expect a thrust of selling.
The unsure economic environment is perceived as much of a culprit this morning as anything due to all commodities being lower today.
Nothing has changed in the feeder cattle realm. I see nothing to do at this time.
Further, I find it interesting that the rains have had no impact on corn or beans, considering the areas impacted in Iowa and surrounding. Nonetheless, grains are weaker along with everything else today.
The weaker trade in the December 2018 crop year has put it under $3.80. With the current largest top three crops in history creating a $3.01 low, and intrinsic value perceived north of $3.30, owning December 2018 with a 50-cent premium for two years does not appear too out of line of normal carry.
An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits. You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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