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How many bushels will stand in the field through the winter?

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Exports continue to be a disappointment and weather is the major player in South America.

Corn bulls are pointing towards a U.S. harvest that continues to face significant delays and leaves a lot of bushels still in the field. The USDA now estimates the U.S. corn harvest is 89% complete vs. the 5-year average of 98% complete. Keep in mind, North Dakota is just 36% harvested vs. 95% on average by this date. Michigan and Wisconsin are both only 66% harvested. South Dakota is just 80% harvested. Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio also still have some work to do getting all the acres harvested. From what I understand, the USDA will again be providing harvest updates next Monday... stay tuned! 

On the demand side of the equation, weekly export inspections were a bit of a disappointment. The USDA also reported October corn-for-ethanol use up from September to 436.8 million bushels, but still down just over -5% from last year. October DDG production was also up from the previous month, but overall down by about -6% from last year. 

Bottom-line, demand bears continue to keep the reins on supply-side bulls and the market keeps chopping around. As for South America, there's continued talk that producers in Brazil might be itching to plant more second-crop corn acres, especially if the weather remains mostly cooperative. There are some weather hiccups still brewing in Argentina that we will continue to monitor closely.

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The opinions of Kevin Van Trump are not necessarily those of Corn and Soybean Digest or Farm Progress.

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