As the book closes on 2018 and attention turns to the year ahead, agricultural producers and professionals can assess some accomplishments in the past year, but many more questions and challenges for 2019. As this was written, a new farm bill was on the final path to completion, but will take some effort to implement in the coming months. A new, or updated, trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico offered some certainty for nearby trade opportunities, but continuing tariffs and conflicts with trade partners across the globe will offer even greater uncertainty. EPA’s announcement of continued growth in renewable fuels usage requirements, as well as the Trump administration’s promise of year-round E15, provided some support to the bioenergy sector. However, bigger questions still lay ahead for the future.

Of the many issues driving the ag policy outlook for 2019, the first should be the coming change in Congress. The election results provided a wave of Democratic gains in the House of Representatives, even as Republicans picked up a couple seats in the Senate. The switch in control of the House to the Democrats will mean a split Congress and on paper would suggest a greater stalemate on many policy issues than when Republicans controlled both chambers as well as the White House. However, recent history would confirm that one-party control of both Congress and the White House did not guarantee a clear path for the party’s policy agenda. In fact, the rules of the Senate and the lack of a filibuster-proof majority (more than 60 votes) have impeded the Senate agenda for years under either party’s leadership (excluding the judicial nominations moved forward under simple majority rules). That being said, a split Congress in the new session does seem likely to face an even greater stalemate than in the previous session.

The direct impact for agriculture may not be in new legislation passed in the coming year, but in the general direction of the policy discussions and committee leadership in the House. The House Agriculture Committee leaders will switch roles in the new Congress. With both pushing to complete the farm bill in 2018, though, the shift in power may not dramatically change the agenda in the year ahead.

In contrast, the presumed incoming chairs of several other House committees, including Appropriations, Energy and Commerce, Natural Resources, Ways and Means, and Rules, could possibly change the agenda. Those committees address issues ranging from spending to food policy, energy policy, environmental policy, trade and taxes. With a split Congress, the actual legislative impact may be muted in the coming year, but the agenda is certain to be different than it has been in the past. Looking at the range of policy issues, it can be useful to lay out the questions and challenges, even if the outlook is uncertain.

Farm policy and farm programs will be one of the few areas with certainty, as a new farm bill should usher in new farm programs for the 2019-2023 program years. And, given the new farm bill will continue the existing Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) with only modest revisions, the programs will look very familiar to producers, although a new enrollment decision will happen under very different market conditions as opposed to the last decision in 2014. Conservation programs will also continue largely in their current form, with more enrollment opportunities in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), but presumably less dollars in the working lands programs of the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) and particularly the Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP).

Trade policy faces perhaps the greatest uncertainty and potential implications in the coming year. The new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement signed in November promises some trade stability and opportunities, but it still faces a ratification vote in Congress in the coming year. And, the ongoing trade conflicts and competing tariffs threaten to drown out any progress or gains in trade negotiations and agreements. A December meeting of presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting appeared to offer improved trade prospects with China, but even a quick resolution of the current trade conflict will likely lead down a long, slow road of recovery for U.S. exporters and agricultural markets.

EPA answered some biofuels questions with the announcement of increased renewable fuel usage obligations for 2019. The Trump administration's plans to approve year-round E15 could also help push out the so-called 10% blend wall to 15% and allow for potential growth in ethanol usage above mandated levels. However, the unsettled issue of small refinery exemptions to the mandate leaves the question of how much renewable fuels will actually be required during the coming year? Furthermore, EPA is also responsible for revisiting the entire renewable fuels requirement levels under current legislation in the coming year, so the future of biofuels is full of questions.

Food policy will also be a major issue for the coming year, with regulatory oversight and labeling requirements of biotechnology as well as regulation and labeling plans for lab-cultured meat products. USDA is due to release the biotechnology disclosure labeling rules for food products, but seems likely to face a legal challenge regardless of what the rules require. USDA oversight of biotechnology itself is also a question as more second-generation gene-edited products are developed as compared to the first-generation trans-gene products. For lab-cultured meat products, USDA and the Food and Drug Administration have announced plans for joint oversight, but the exact processes and labeling requirements are likely to be debated at length in the coming year.

Environmental issues will certainly be on the agenda as well. The Trump administration has promised a new rule to repeal and rewrite the Waters of the United States rule that was finalized late in President Barack Obama’s tenure in the White House. In the meantime, there is a mixed legal environment of states where the Obama rule is in effect and states where a court injunction has stayed the Obama rule and left the pre-Obama definition as impacted by Supreme Court rulings holds for now. Looking beyond water, the Democratic House is likely to push forward with climate policy discussions, including emissions controls or taxes. Of course, with a Republican Senate and White House, there is no expectation of enacting legislation, but the issue will definitely be on the radar for the next couple of years ahead of the 2020 election.

There are additional policy issues on the radar for the coming year beyond those discussed above, including immigration, taxes, budget, spending, and more. Given the split control of Congress, it would be easy to predict that little will happen beyond a political stalemate and grandstanding ahead of the 2020 election. However, some issues will need to be addressed legislatively, and others will be moving through either the regulatory process, the legal process or both. It will be important for agricultural producers, professionals and stakeholder groups to keep alert to the issues and engaged in the process.

Lubben is an Extension Policy Specialist for the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.