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USDA raises corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks

Brazil soybeans unchanged at 100 million tons.

Bob Burgdorfer, Senior Editor

February 9, 2016

3 Min Read

Updated to include comments from Bryce Knorr.

USDA on Tuesday raised ending stocks for U.S. corn, soybeans and wheat by lowering its export forecasts for corn and wheat and trimming the crush for soybeans.

Chicago crop markets barely moved as the revisions drew little reaction from grain traders. Corn, soybeans and wheat futures held small losses before and after the report.

U.S. raised corn ending stocks for the 2015 harvest to1.837 billion bushels from January’s 1.802 billion, as larger South American supplies may reduce U.S. corn exports. U.S. corn exports were cut 50 million bushels from January to 1.65 billion.

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 “The ability of prices to not fall apart in the first minutes of trading after bearish USDA reports could be a sign that selling pressure is finally starting to wind down,” said Bryce Knorr, Farm Futures senior grain market analyst. “Demand for corn may be better than expected but that depends on the U.S. livestock industry, and we won’t get a better reading on usage from that sector until after March 1 grain stocks are reported at the end of next month.”

Soybean ending stocks went to 450 million bushels from January’s 440 million as lower soybean meal exports may lead to a lower crush, USDA said. The crush was cut by 10 million bushels and soymeal exports were lowered by 500,000 tons.

Wheat ending stocks were raised to 966 million from January’s 941 million as exports were lowered by the same amount because of ample global supplies.

“Wheat remains pretty much a lost cause, with the only hope for rallies now falling squarely on what happens to the 2016 crop,” said Knorr. “The market may have a one or maybe two pops left, depending on whether storms on the Plains emerge later this month as expected.”

Chicago crop futures barely moved after the reports. March corn futures stayed about 1-1/4 cents lower and May was off 1-1/2 shortly after the numbers were released. March and May soybeans were about unchanged, March soft red winter wheat was down 1-1/4 cents and May was off 1-3/4 cents.

World wheat ending stocks were raised by 2.1 million metric tons due in part to a 2 million ton increase in China’s beginning stocks. World wheat production increased slightly due to larger crops in Argentina and Ukraine.

Soybean production in Argentina went to 58.5 million metric tons from 57 million while Brazil’s was unchanged at 100 million.  USDA left their exports unchanged at 11.8 million and 57 million, respectively.

Argentina’s corn went to 27 million tons from January’s 25.6 million and exports to 17million from 16 million. Brazil’s corn crop was raised to 84million from 81.5 million and exports to 28 million from 25.5 million. USDA did trim South Africa’s corn crop by 1 million to 7 million tons because of drought there, but raised its exports by 400,000 metric tons.

“Both corn and soybean production in South America appears to have escaped any major damage,” said Knorr. “The market will be watching to see what Chinese traders do when they return from Lunar New Year holidays next week, but they certainly have plenty of supply to work with.”

Check out the report numbers.

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