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Missouri’s net farm income projected to decline

A University of Missouri report shows a decrease in production expenses is not enough to offset lower commodity prices.

April 17, 2024

2 Min Read
A soybean field with a farm in the background
SHIFTING ACRES: Missouri farmers will see a decrease of 230,000 acres in corn planted, while soybean acres are expected to increase by 470,000 this year. Timothy Hearsum/Getty Images

Missouri farmers continue to feel the financial pinch as net farm income is on a downward slide, according to the latest 2024 spring outlook.

The University of Missouri’s Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF), in its latest Missouri Farm Income Outlook, projects an 18% decline in net farm income for the state, compared to an estimated 25.5% decrease in U.S. net farm income.

Although decreased production expenses offer some relief, says Scott Brown, RaFF interim director, reduced livestock inventories and lower crop prices are affecting Missouri producers, leading to the projection of lower farm receipts this year.

The report offers a state-level glimpse at projected farm financial indicators, including farm receipts, production expenses and other factors that affect net farm income.

Projections suggest that declining market receipts and lower crop prices play a role in the estimated $800 million decrease for Missouri farmers and ranchers.

Numbers you should know

What can farmers expect this spring? Here is a look at some key numbers:

11% decline in crop receipts. Statewide planted area is expected to decrease by 136,000 acres, with shifts to less corn and more soybean acres.

9% decrease in livestock receipts. Cattle and hog cash receipts could see a recovery in 2025, driven in part by increased marketings.

5% decrease in production expenses. Costs for fertilizer, feed and fuel have retreated from previous highs. Despite this decline, costs for purchased livestock, seed, labor, taxes and capital consumption continue to increase.

Better view on the horizon

While this year will likely be a struggle for many farmers, the report anticipates Missouri net farm income to rebound in 2025 and 2026.

“RaFF’s farm income projections can help us better understand farm finance indicators across a broader geography, and we can start to explore their uniqueness,” Brown adds. “The Missouri Farm Income Outlook, and outlooks from our collaborating institutions, can help policymakers, stakeholders and producers make informed decisions.”

Regional glance at net farm income

Looking across the Midwest, how does the Show-Me State’s 18% decline in net farm income compare to other agriculture states?

  • Arkansas — 15% decline

  • Illinois — 38% decline

  • Iowa — 20% decline

  • Kansas — 21% increase

Source: MU Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center

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