September 30, 2016
Articles this week suggest current inventory exceeds kill capacity in hogs, and to some extent cattle, and this has offset any positive attributes.
The expression "puking them out" appears to be literal today. With the majority of the supply issue known, instances such as this week appear to be just rubbing salt in the wound.
My perception only -- and you know I've not had very good perception lately -- is that this news is nothing new and is being used to further pressure participants into accepting less money for their inventory. I fully understand this means nothing until the packer has acquired their needs.
My analysis from two weeks ago, anticipating a $116.00 October trade, has fallen completely apart. However bad this decline has been, and foolish it has made me look, I perceive the actual supply situation to not be as burdensome as most perceive and that the financial weakness of producers is a much the issue as is the amount of beef on hand.
I know this does not help in any manner to decipher the next most probable move, or offer any insight into where the bottom may be.
My analysis may be correct, but I am incorrect at the moment and attempting to recommend anything at this time will not be beneficial.
New contract lows were made in the feeders again today. The appearance of a fire sale going on in the back months doesn't appear to be enticing any feed yard to secure the basis.
Basis has been hyper-volatile with the futures moving to the great extents they have. I fully understand the technical reasons to sell, with the new contract lows and support seemingly nonexistent at this time. However, I perceive the risk of participation to be equal to not participating.
An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits. You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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