As it often does, USDA had a mixed bag of export sales data in its latest weekly report, out Thursday morning. Wheat saw the most upside last week, according to Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr.
“Wheat export business picked up noticeably last week as buyers got serious about booking supplies,” he says. “The Philippines was the only destination buying more than a single cargo, with most of the purchases coming out of the Americas. Demand from Indonesia could be the key to whether or not 2019 is a ho-hum year or better than expected, but so far they’re not committing to much.”
Total new crop sales for wheat reached 22.5 million bushels for the week ending June 20, moving significantly higher than the prior week’s tally of 6.9 million bushels and nearly doubling trade estimates of 12.9 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to match USDA forecasts moved lover, to 13.2 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments found 15.5 million bushels last week. The Philippines, unknown destinations and Mexico lead all destinations for the young 2019/20 marketing year, accounting for 12% of the total each. Other top destinations include Japan (9%), Nigeria (7%) and Algeria (5%).
Soybean export sales struggled last week, in contrast, gathering 6.2 million bushels in old crop sales plus another 11.7 million bushels in new crop sales for a total of 17.9 million bushels. Totals fell behind the prior week’s tally of 28.4 million bushels and trade estimates of 20.2 million bushels.
China remains worth watching, according to Knorr.
“China continues to add to its previous sales, mostly with deals being shifted from one buyer to another,” he says. “Saturday’s trade talks with China at the G-20 summit will be closely watch for signs of a breakthrough. China still has 204 million bushels of unshipped sales on the books, mostly purchased as a goodwill gesture before negotiations stalled this spring.”
Soybean export shipments were for 26.6 million bushels. As the 2018/19 marketing year winds down, China leads all destinations, accounting for 29% of the total. Other top destinations include the European Union (15%), Mexico (10%), Egypt (6%), Japan (5%) and unknown destinations (5%).
Corn export sales struggled last week after accumulating just 11.6 million bushels in old crop sales plus another 4.3 million bushels of new crop sales for a total of 15.9 million bushels. That was fractionally higher than the prior week’s tally of 15.7 million bushels but below trade estimates of 19.7 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to match USDA forecasts of old crop sales moved higher, to 28.1 million bushels.
“Corn business remains thin, as higher prices ration demand,” Knorr ways. “That’s likely to increase projections of supplies leftover when the 2018 marketing year ends Aug. 31, providing a cushion until what’s likely to be a short crop is harvested in the fall.”
Corn export shipments fared better after reaching 27.4 million bushels last week. Mexico is the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn export commitments in 2018/19, with 31% of the total. Other top destinations include Japan (24%), Colombia (9%), South Korea (8%), Peru (4%) and Taiwan (4%).
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