Will sunflower acres increase this year? I wish there was a crystal ball to predict this but, as you know, there isn’t. The jury is still out on if acres will increase or not, but from the chatter I am hearing from both producers and processers that are contracting acres, I would say they will.

The common theme I hear is that oil sunflower offers a good alternative in 2019. Oil sunflower prices have remained steady throughout the winter despite the weakness in every other market. New crop oil sunflower prices have also been very firm and near the levels from a year ago with oil crushers offering Act of God and cash contracts.

How much can acres increase before it impacts prices in 2019? Based on historical usage, an increase in acres of 10% to 15% in 2019 can easily be added given current demand without impacting present prices to a great degree. Several new domestic customers have come on board adding sunflower oil to their product mix. Export markets are growing as well, giving several market options to sell oil.

Obviously, world events can change markets in a hurry. but based on the small 2018 production, tight seed stocks and product demand, the sunflower market should be able to handle a modest increase in 2019 acres to replenish stocks and meet demand.

NuSun out, high oleic in

Something else that you will see in 2019 is the continued push toward converting the oil crop from NuSun to high-oleic sunflower. There is a good market for both oils at this time. However, trends change, and products need to adapt to consumer preferences. The market wants oils to have zero trans-fat and saturated fat levels at or below 7%.

In addition, food processors want oils to be very stable for extended shelf life and fry life, coupled with a neutral taste profile. High-oleic sunflower oil fits the bill on all counts. While NuSun was a positive move for the sunflower industry in the late 1990s, the increasing market demand for high-oleic oils has convinced oil crushers that the industry needs to adjust again.

June-July market high

Most fundamental news for oil has been negative the past few months, which has put CBoT soybean oil contracts on the defensive. The cold weather in the U.S. this winter drove crush demand for soybean meal and pressured CBoT soyoil contracts as oil stocks started to build. Market analysts think this trend will reverse into the spring and summer months with oil prices strengthening as meal demand tapers off.

Last year, sunflower seed prices hit the market high in June-July, and that could happen again this year depending on planted acres and growing season conditions.

In the months ahead, growing season weather from North America to the Black Sea region will be the main price setter. Other fundamentals that the markets will be focusing on will be South American corn and soybean production and impact it might have on U.S. exports, plus any news from Washington on trade policy.

Sandbakken is executive director of the National Sunflower Association.