May 11, 2011

5 Min Read


Today’s WASDE report released by USDA is predicting record corn production at 13.5 billion bushels, up 1.1 billion from 2010-2011. Prices are also at record highs at $5.50-6.50/bu. Soybean production is expected to be down 44 million bushels from 2010-2011. Prices, however, are up in a range from $12 to $14 bu./acre, compared to a 2010-2011 price of $11.40.



Corn production for 2011-2012 is projected at a record 13.5 billion bushels, up 1.1 billion from 2010-2011 as a 4.0-million-acre increase in intended plantings and a recovery from last year’s weather-reduced yields boost expected output. The 2011-2012 corn yield is projected at 158.7 bu./acre, 3 bu. below the 1990-2010 trend reflecting the slow pace of planting progress through early May. The 2011-2012 yield is expected to be the third-highest on record. Corn supplies for 2011-2012 are projected at 14.3 billion bushels. This is below the 2009-2010 record of 14.8 billion bushels, but up 75 million from 2010-2011, as a 5-million-bushel increase in 2010-2011 imports and a 50-million-bushel reduction in 2010-2011 exports boost current year carryout this month.

Total U.S. corn use for 2011-2012 is projected down 1% from 2010-2011. Corn use for ethanol is projected up 50 million bushels reflecting slow expected growth in gasoline consumption and continued export demand for ethanol in the coming year. Domestic corn feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels lower than in 2010-2011 reflecting increased availability of feed byproducts from ethanol production and lower expected residual use as compared with the current year. U.S. corn exports for 2011-2012 are projected down 100 million bushels from 2010-2011 with larger foreign corn supplies. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2011-2012 are projected at 900 million bushels, up 170 million from the current year projection. Stocks remain historically tight with stocks-to-use projected at 6.7% compared with the current year projection of 5.4%. The season-average farm price is projected at a record $5.50-6.50/bu. compared with the 2010-2011 forecast of $5.10-5.40.

Global coarse grain production for 2011-2012 is projected at a record 1,146.8 million tons, up 6% from 2010-2011. A 52.4-million-ton increase in global corn output to 867.7 million tons accounts for 84% of the year-to-year increase in coarse grain production. Foreign corn production is projected up 25.5 million tons with the largest increases expected in Argentina, China, Russia, Mexico and Ukraine. Global 2011-2012 production is raised for barley, oats, and rye, mostly reflecting a recovery in production in Russia. World production for all three crops remains below recent highs as more attractive returns for corn and oilseeds limit area expansion in these traditional coarse grains. Global corn exports are projected higher for 2011-2012 with increases for Argentina, Russia and Ukraine more than offsetting reductions for the U.S., Canada and Brazil. Global corn consumption is projected at a record 860.8 million tons, up 22.2 million from 2010-2011, with nearly all of the increase in foreign markets. World corn ending stocks for 2011-2012 are projected at 129.1 million tons, up 7.0 million from 2010-2011.



U.S. oilseed production for 2011-2012 is projected at 99.0 million tons, down 1% from 2010-2011. Reduced soybean production accounts for most of the decline, but sunflowerseed, canola and peanut production are all projected below last year’s crops. Soybean production is projected at 3.285 billion bushels, down 44 million from the 2010 crop mostly due to lower harvested area. Soybean yields are projected at a trend level of 43.4 bu./acre, down 0.1 bu. from 2010. Soybean supplies are projected at 3.47 billion bushels, down less than 1% from 2010-2011 as larger beginning stocks partly offset lower production. Soybean ending stocks for 2010-2011 are projected at 170 million bushels, up 30 million from last month due to reduced exports.

Soybean crush for 2011-2012 is projected at 1.655 billion bushels, up fractionally from 2010-2011 as a lower extraction rate offsets reduced total soybean meal demand. Lower soybean meal export demand projected for 2011-2012 is only partly offset by a small increase in domestic soybean meal use, leaving total soybean meal use down 1% from 2010-2011. Domestic soybean oil consumption is projected to increase 7% mostly due to biodiesel production gains. Soybean oil used for biodiesel production is projected at 3.5 billion pounds, up 1 billion from 2010-2011 reflecting a higher biodiesel use mandate.

With lower 2011-2012 U.S. soybean supplies and higher South American soybean supplies on hand this fall, U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.54 billion bushels, slightly below the 2010-2011 level despite a projected increase in global import demand led by China. Ending stocks for 2011-2012 are projected at 160 million bushels, down 10 million from 2010-2011, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at 4.8%.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2011-2012 is projected at $12-14/bu. compared with $11.40 in 2010-2011. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $350-380/short ton, compared with $350 for 2010-2011. Soybean oil prices are projected at 56-60¢/lb. compared with 53.5¢ for 2010-2011.

Global oilseed production for 2011-2012 is projected at a record 459.2 million tons, up 2.2% from 2010-2011. Global soybean production is projected to increase less than 1% to 263.3 million tons. The Argentina crop is projected at 53 million tons, up 3.5 million from 2010-2011 crop based on a higher harvested area and yields. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at 72.5 million tons, down 0.5 million from the projected record 2010-2011 crop. A 3% increase in harvested area is more than offset by a return to trend yields. China soybean production is projected at 14.8 million tons, down 0.4 million from 2010-2011 due to lower area and yields. Higher rapeseed production for Canada, Australia, China and Ukraine more than offsets lower production for EU-27. For sunflowerseed, production gains for Russia, Ukraine and EU-27 more than offset reduced production in Argentina. Led by gains in global oilseed production, 2011-2012 oilseed supplies are up 2.4% from 2010-2011. With global crush projected to increase 3.5%, global oilseed stocks are projected to decline 1.5 million tons to 72.2 million.

Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.6% in 2011-2012. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 7.8% in China, accounting for 54% of global protein consumption gains. Global soybean exports are projected at 98.7 million tons, up 2.8% from 2010-2011. China soybean imports are projected at 58 million tons, up 3.5 million from 2010-2011. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 3.5% in 2011-2012, led by increases for China, India.


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