Corn production, stocks up slightly; soybean production up 16%, stocks unchangedCorn production, stocks up slightly; soybean production up 16%, stocks unchanged
USDA released the August Crop Production and WASDE reports, predicting and increase in both corn and soybean production, and a decrease in prices. Ending stocks are increased for corn and are flat for soybeans.
August 12, 2014
Corn production is forecast at 14.0 billion bushels, up 1% from 2013. Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average 167.4 bushels per acre, up 8.6 bushels from 2013. If realized, this will be the highest yield and production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.8 million acres, unchanged from the June forecast but down 4% from 2013.
Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.82 billion bushels, up 16% from last year. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 45.4 bushels per acre, up 2.1 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record 84.1 million acres, unchanged from June but up 11% from last year.
Corn supplies for 2014/15 are projected at a record 15,243 million bushels with the increase in production partly offset by a 65-million-bushel reduction in beginning stocks. Corn use for ethanol and exports are raised 45 million bushels and 20 million bushels, respectively, for 2013/14, based on reported data to date. Projected corn use for 2014/15 is higher with use for ethanol and exports each raised 25 million bushels, and feed and residual disappearance 50 million bushels higher with the larger crop. Projected ending stocks for 2014/15 are raised slightly to 1,808 million bushels. The projected season-average farm price for corn is lowered 10 cents at both ends of the range to $3.55 to $4.25 per bushel.
Soybean supplies for 2014/15 are projected slightly above last month based on the higher production forecast. With minimal supply gains, soybean exports and crush are unchanged, leaving ending stocks projected at 430 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2014/15 is forecast at $9.35 to $11.35 per bushel, down 15 cents on both ends. Soybean meal and oil prices are forecast at $340 to $380, down 10 dollars at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 35 to 39 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint.
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