Corn futures prices have been trending higher since January. However, December corn futures have endured a recent price selloff thanks to ideas that grain from the Black Sea region would be exported, and that U.S. farmers would get this spring’s corn crop planted despite soggy weather conditions in the Northern Plains.

Over the past few days, corn futures have been gaining back a large portion of the recent price setback.

There will be plenty of uncertainty to keep prices hopping with dramatic flair in the coming months. Questions like, how many acres actually did get planted in the United States? What will yield be? How is the corn crop fairing in the rest of the world? Will the crop in Ukraine get exported to the world?

There is plenty of uncertainty surrounding current corn market fundamentals. Tight ending stock supplies in the United States and globally should keep corn futures prices supported.

Nevertheless, the June WASDE report – due out June 10 – has a tendency to bring very little fresh news to the marketplace. History suggests that only minor adjustments are made to demand numbers, saving acres and yield for reports later this summer.

Rally killer ahead?

What does that mean to you? With little fresh news to trade on, in most years this can bring the corn rally to a grinding halt. There’s a seasonal tendency for December corn futures to drop shortly after the June USDA report into “late June.”

While past performance is not indicative of future results, you need to be aware of this seasonal tendency. In fact, 14 out of the past 15 years, the average price drop for December corn futures is close to 50 cents for that two-to-three-week time frame!

Even in 2012, the market followed this seasonal pattern for over a week, before the news of the drought caused prices to rally. The one year where the market did not fall after the June USDA report was in 2008. That year there was a rally, but please note that in 2008, the rally lasted until just after the 4^th of July – then corn prices lost nearly $4 by harvest!

While anything can happen in the coming weeks, please have a plan ready for this potential price scenario to unfold. Often times the price fall does only last for a few weeks before a weather scare or a surprise reaction on the June 30^th planted acres report justifies a price rally. However, a seasonal price fall, 14 out of 15 years, is something you can’t ignore. So be ready.

Reach Naomi Blohm at 800-334-9779, on Twitter: @naomiblohm, and at [email protected].

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