Record Brazilian soybean yields projected before the 2021/2022 growing season are looking more plausible as planting season comes to an end in Mato Grosso state.
The seeding process is complete in almost all regions of the state and we’re seeing good emergence, thanks to good rains that occurred during the seeding window.
Mato Grosso’s Institute of Ag Economics (IMEA) forecast 51.34 bushels of soybean per acre, based in part on the rain volumes that the state has already experienced, along with the optimistic forecast for the months of December and January.
If expectations are confirmed, the state will once again hit a record volume in production of 37.5 million tons (1.3 billion bushels), an increase of 3.9% compared to last year, in 26.7 million acres, an increase of 3.5% in comparison to the past harvest. The added acres come from degraded pasture.
One cautionary note -- there is a rain forecast for the beginning of 2022 that is above average compared to the past five years, so that raises a potential red flag for the harvest season.
An outlook for 2030 shows that the production of soybean in Mato Grosso is expected to increase from 35.4 (2020) to 58.4 million tons. To accompany that production, there is a need to increase the area in 11.5 million acres. Monique Kempa, a data analyst from IMEA, says, “Mato Grosso has around 34 million acres of degraded pasture areas that can be converted into planting fields for crops; with this projection, 1/3 of this area would be used.”
The opinions of the author are not necessarily those of Farm Futures or Farm Progress.