Some seed companies and others inside agriculture predict average corn yields will hit 300 bushels per acre by 2030. Based on the past two years, it seems when weather cooperates we may be well on our way to making that prediction come true. Several topped 300 bushels per acre last year and there's no reason to think it won't happen again this year.
Those who say yields will rise to those levels also say we need it to feed a hungry world with an increasing world population, predicted to rise from 7 to 9 billion by 2050. The question becomes: "Can people consume it as fast as increasing yields meet the challenge of providing a bigger food supply?"
Too much supply? More corn than the market can move may mean lower prices for farmers. Meanwhile, people continue to starve around the world.
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Based on what's happening this year, the answer may seem in doubt. Purdue University ag economist Michael Langemeier says carryover stocks for corn by next year will likely be two billion bushels. That's after a period with carryover stocks under a billion bushels followed by years with stocks somewhat above a billion bushels per year.
Increased carryover stocks mean lower corn and soybean prices.
So with people already starving around the world and more people on the way, why are stocks going up instead of down? Two years of good weather across most of the Corn Belt in the U.S. have contributed to more production. The predictions about increased average yields seem to be on target.
What's not on target is getting food to everyone who needs it. Socio-economic and political reasons get in the way. People will starve while your bins are full of corn and perhaps soybeans this winter.
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Growing it is one thing. Having a market system and a political environment that gets food to where it's needed is another.
At the moment the ability to produce more food seems to be outstripping a delivery system to get food where it's needed. The result is bins bulging with grain and plenty of supply. Technology advances would seem to be mounting up and turning into higher yields faster than politicians are solving problems to getting extra supply to where it needs to be at prices farmers can live with, not just given away for free.
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