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Swift's Market Comments

Weak economy and strong dollar both matter

Weak economy and strong dollar both matter
Some cash sales at $125 buoy fed-cattle hopes, feeders looking a possible double bottom, strong dollar affecting all markets right now.

 

In the live cattle markets, a lack of buying enthusiasm is perceived as much a culprit as the selling.

Longs are frustrated to begin with, and now the Fed turns from hawkish to dovish, suggesting the economy is in no better shape than it has been.

My same intuitive feeling persists this morning that making sales at this much of a discount is not perceived as advantageous. I know the discount is less today due to the cash trades at $125.00 surfacing this morning, but it still remains to be seen though whether cash will fall another $9 to meet June and $13 to meet August at these respective levels.

The August feeder cattle chart is technically in a downtrend, but is showing potential for a double bottom, a chart formation that could offer strength for a turnaround.

August feeders came to within 12 cents of contract low. If there were to be a double bottom on the chart transpire, this is about as close as one could ask for. Just under $140.00 is perceived as intrinsic value for feeders. Barring just flat out being fooled, a trade to a new contract low would lead me to perceive the down trend has resumed.

The being-fooled part would come into play if a new contract low were to be made, followed by a sharp reversal. This is why I remain so hesitant to do anything at this level.

Corn is being driven by strength of the dollar. The change in stance from hawkish to dovish by the Fed has produced an exceptionally strong US dollar. As our interest rates remain positive, investors rush to buy US dollars, to buy US debt instruments that show a return. The strength in the US dollar is perceived to have curtailed the weather factors some. With both corn and beans perceived in an Elliot wave 4 correction, this decline is not as bothersome yet.

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