Farm Progress is part of the Informa Markets Division of Informa PLC

This site is operated by a business or businesses owned by Informa PLC and all copyright resides with them. Informa PLC's registered office is 5 Howick Place, London SW1P 1WG. Registered in England and Wales. Number 8860726.

Swift's Market Comments

Live cattle appear preparing for upthrust

Live cattle appear preparing for upthrust
Softer prices right now look like a fourth-wave move prior to a wave-five upthrust to higher prices.


Traders are more skeptical today than they have been for a while.

With technical indicators on the hourly chart at highs along with the price, it leads me to anticipate this lower price action as a minor Elliot wave-four correction.

If that is correct, a wave-five thrust measures to $116.80 February.

The extent of today's lower trade puts it into the range I would like to be a buyer in.

I recommend buying February cattle at the market with a sell stop to exit only at $108.97.  

Critical price action will happen on the February live cattle chart between $106.37 and $109. A break below that area would suggest lower price action.

Third quarter GDP revisions were higher with the first time in I can't remember when with more than a 3% gain in GDP. Combine this with the increase in consumer confidence, and there appears little change to impact beef from the consumers standpoint.

The continual increases in open interest suggests more and more are interested in cattle at these price levels.

The $109.00 area I've chosen for a stop is not an area that may produce a reversal. I chose this level as it would begin to overlap smaller wave sequences. The test of price will be the $106.37 February. A trade under this will have overlapped a major wave sequence that should not be if prices are going to go higher.

Feeders are softer this morning as well.

Nothing has changed here. I continue to anticipate the strength of the fat market to pull feeder prices higher.

I've been reminded that through the summer, none of my upside targets met. This one could be just another repeat of prices falling short of desired target. With so many subtle changes that have materialized over the past few months, I find it difficult to anticipate a resumption of the down trend to new contract lows. Not to say it can't or won't, but that I do not anticipate it doing such at this time.

Have your strategies written out and be ready to move when applicable.

An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits. You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hide comments


  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.