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Will planting pace keep a lid on corn prices?

Will planting pace keep a lid on corn prices?

Corn traders continue to monitor South American weather, Chinese policy, Brazilian politics and the pace of U.S. planting. Really nothing has changed much in the past 24 hours. 

Weather in Argentina is arguably less bullish as many locations catch a drier forecast over the next few days. Producers inside Brazil are still trying to asses the damage to the second-crop corn caused by too much heat and not enough moisture. Several sources have now lowered their Brazilian crop production estimate to sub-80MMTs.

The Chinese have yet to make an "official" announcement about how they are going to move their glut of domestic corn. Several insiders think the Chinese may be keeping the corn market artificially inflated since they are holding over 50% of the worlds current surplus. A major break in price would obviously devalue the supply they are getting ready to sell on the open market.

Technically there is still stiff resistance for the new-crop DEC16 contract up between $4 and $4.10 per bushel. Here at home the latest USDA data showed the U.S. crop 45% planted, which puts us on the same pace as last year, and well ahead of the 30% average for this date. Below are some of the specifics from the latest USDA data.

GET THE DAILY VAN TRUMP REPORT.

  • Colorado +12% planted last week to 19% vs. 22% average ---- 0% emerged
  • Illinois +24% planted last week to 66% vs. 38% average ---- 25% emerged 
  • Indiana +19% planted last week to 30% vs. 22% average ---- 4% emerged
  • Iowa +17% planted last week to 57% vs. 28% average ---- 7% emerged
  • Kansas +7% planted last week to 50% vs. 41% average ---- 27% emerged
  • Kentucky +14% planted last week to 64% vs. 38% average ---- 29% emerged
  • Michigan +5% planted last week to 8% vs. 12% average ---- 0% emerged
  • Minnesota +14% planted last week to 59% vs. 27% average ---- 5% emerged
  • Missouri +8% planted last week to 89% vs. 47% average ---- 57% emerged
  • Nebraska +10% planted last week to 26% vs. 31% average ---- 7% emerged
  • N. Carolina +9% planted last week to 84% vs. 80% average ---- 55% emerged
  • N. Dakota +10% planted last week to 16% vs. 14% average ---- 1% emerged
  • Ohio +9% planted last week to 27% vs. 17% average ---- 1% emerged
  • Penn +20% planted last week to 34% vs. 12% average ---- 2% emerged 
  • S. Dakota  +6% planted last week to 12% vs. 21% average ---- 0% emerged
  • Tennessee +15% planted last week to 80% vs. 57% average ---- 45% emerged
  • Texas +14% planted last week to 66% vs. 71% average ---- 47% emerged
  • Wisconsin +12% planted last week to 22% vs. 12% average ---- 1% emerged 

 

TAGS: Corn
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