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Can bulls keep the weather premium in the corn market?

TAGS: Corn
Can bulls keep the weather premium in the corn market?

Corn traders continue trying to decipher upcoming South American and U.S. weather forecasts. The bulls say the upcoming rounds of wet weather here at home might delay planting in some key production areas and should therefore be considered bullish price. On the other hand the bears are saying the weather is nearly perfect for the seed that has recently been planted and the overall pace of planting shouldn't be negatively impacted.

Most inside the trade are looking for the USDA on Monday to show double-digit gains in regard to the pace of U.S. planting. Several sources believe we could jump from 14% planted last week to between 25% and 30% by the end of this weekend, which would obviously be well ahead of our traditional pace. Remember, the trade likes to see the U.S. farmer on pace to have about 80% planted by mid-May. As of right now that doesn't look to be any type of concern. Therefore it's tough to imagine the trade adding any type of "weather premium" for planting delays until we start to actually fall behind schedule.

In Brazil, there seems to be more talk of cooler temps and more wide-spread rains being added to the forecast. I suspect this now takes some pressure and concern away from their second-crop production.

I felt fortunate, at least temporarily, to have made another fresh new-crop cash sale yesterday up at $4.08 per bushel vs. the DEC16 contract. I still remain nervous in regard to longer-term price risk so I like the thought of keeping my hedges in place. Continue to keep your eye on the rains being forecast here in the U.S. and South America; I suspect they will direct nearby fundamental price direction. The next few sessions will be important on the charts, many technicians will be paying extremely close attention!


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