January 10, 2014
Increased supplies in major wheat producing and exporting countries are putting downward pressure on prices, despite a record world trade forecast to reach 154.3 million tons in 2013-14, according to a USDA Economics Research Service report.
U.S. wheat prices are also under pressure because falling U.S. corn prices following the rebound in the 2013-14 U.S. corn crop have led to reduced demand for feed wheat.
U.S. season average farm prices are currently forecast in the range of $6.65 to $7.15 per bushel, the midpoint of that range down more than 11 percent from the 2012-13 record of $7.77.
World wheat production in 2013-14 is predicted to set a record at 711.4 million tons, according to the ERS report. That would be 2 percent above the previous record set in 2011-12.
The average per hectare yield is forecast at 2.9 percent above the previous record.
A record crop in Canada and larger harvests in Australia and the Black Sea exporters (Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan) are major contributors to the increase in global wheat output.
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