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Corn prices stay at upper end of range with US weather concerns

corn seedlings
Corn bears are talking about improved U.S. weather with a slightly warmer and drier forecast for next week.

Corn bears are talking about improved U.S. weather with a slightly warmer and drier forecast for next week. The trade is also digesting the NOAAs longer-term three-month outlook which shows above average temps for most all of the major U.S. corn growing regions.

There's also some talk that areas in northern China which were being more closely monitored due to dry conditions are going to start seeing some improved moisture. The bulls are saying the weather here in the U.S. may have already taken the top off the crop in many locations and that several areas in southern Brazil still look extremely wet.

At the same time I'm hearing sources inside Brazil are bumping their total production estimate higher, several have actually pushed their production numbers well north of the USDAs current record setting estimate of 96 MMTs.

In other words I'm currently getting a lot of mixed information out of Brazil, but I'm starting to think their record setting estimate might ultimately push a hair higher, despite the talk of rain complications down south. As I've mentioned the past few weeks, the massive record setting rebound in South American production has me concerned as it will eventually need to find a home and ultimately will be dumped on the market regardless of price concerns.

As a producer I will be looking to use any nearby weather related rally to reduce a portion of my additional longer-term risk. Below are the recent graphics from the NOAA in regard to their combined weather forecast for June-July-August. You can see more information regarding the NOAA weather forecast by clicking HERE.



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