The prediction that some California farmers could see a 30 percent federal water allocation this year is “optimistic,” according to one irrigation district.

The Bureau of Reclamation on Tuesday issued its initial water supply allocation for the federal Central Valley Project. The allocation comes a full month ahead of last year’s initial forecast. Timing of the allocation is critical for planting decisions for growers who still have annual crops.

The conservative nature of the initial allocation stems from a lack of rain and snow across a state that one year ago saw record-high levels of snow and water supply. At current pace, California is on track to have its driest year on record.

While water levels are said to be close to normal for many state reservoirs, with no snowpack to replenish them, combined with exceptionally dry conditions this winter, means Californians can expect more water restrictions this summer.

Current conditions suggest that inflow into Shasta Lake, the Central Valley Project’s main reservoir north of Redding, will have inflows this season in excess of 3.2 million acre feet, meaning this will not be a “Shasta Critical” year as defined in water contracts.