Missed some market news this week? Here’s a look back.

Monday, Sept. 18, 2017

Exports, investors drive soybeans higher. Soybeans have seen export demand pick up recently, one factor moving prices higher this morning. Beans also appear to be benefiting from moves in outside markets, showing strong correlations with the dollar, stocks and crude oil. 

USDA is done with market-moving reports for a while, now it’s a waiting game to see how much corn and soybeans are in the field.

Weekly Grain Movement – Which crops are keeping pace? Soybeans are generally ahead of 2016 totals but lagged behind the average trade guess for the week. Meantime, corn and wheat are dragging their feet compared to last year.

Farmers reporting Feedback from the Field cut their production estimates in reports last week, worried about drought and disease pressure.

Big supplies aren’t necessarily bad for grain prices – as long as there’s big demand on the other side of the ledger. 

USDA’s Crop Progress report said for the week ending Sept. 17, 86% of the corn crop is dented, compared to 92% a year ago and 90% for the five-year average. Percent mature is up to 34% - well behind last year’s total of 50% and the five-year average of 47%. Harvest is now 7% complete, versus 8% in 2016 and 11% for the five-year average.  A total of 41% of the soybean crop is dropping leaves, up from 22% a week ago. That’s still slightly behind 2016 and the five-year average of 43%. Harvest has just begun. At 4% complete, that’s in line with a year ago (4%) and the five-year average (5%).

Tuesday, Sept. 19

While USDA raised its official yield estimates Sept. 12, Monday’s Crop Progress ratings for corn and soybeans both slipped according to Farm Futures analysis.  

Wednesday, Sept. 20

It’s decision day at the Federal Reserve, where the central bank isn’t expected to raise interest rates but may announce when it will begin winding down $4.5 trillion in debt purchased to stimulate the economy.

Thursday, Sept. 21

The Federal Reserve didn’t raise interest rates Wednesday when its two-day meeting on monetary policy wrapped up, but the central bank sent clear signals it would move to tighten credit in the year ahead.

Trade estimates ahead of USDA’s weekly Export Sales report tend to be pretty solid – but those numbers can fly out the window when a string of large sales are reported. USDA reports any daily sales activity over 100,000 metric tons (about 3.67 million bushels). Such a sale was reported for soybeans every day last week. That tallied up to 85.9 million bushels in old crop sales for the week ending Sept. 14.

Friday, Sept. 22

Soybeans attracted follow-through buying overnight after bursting through resistance on the daily chart. Corn and wheat joined in the gains, testing some key areas of their charts as well.

Grain futures are higher across the board this morning, with buying once again paced by soybeans. While traders debate the size of the crop amid signs of better export demand, attention is also turning to quarterly grain stocks data due out a week from today.

There’s been a soybean export sale four of the last five days, with China making the bulk of the purchases. Unknown destinations came in for the biggest buy of the week – a 39.6 million bushel purchase on Sept. 20. 

Corn and soybeans grabbed moderate gains early in the day and never looked back. Meantime, winter wheat prices gave back most of yesterday’s gains while spring wheat held on for a second straight day of higher prices. 

Corn, soybeans and wheat are all trending higher this month. Where will USDA put corn harvest completion in its Monday afternoon Crop Progress report? 

Market outlooks 

Basis Outlook - Weak basis ahead of harvest is nothing new, but growers selling into the export pipeline saw cash prices plummet more than usual this week. Low water closed the La Grange Lock and Dam on the Illinois River, and barge rates were up almost 15 cents a bushel on the week.

Energy/Ethanol Outlook - The cost of harvesting, hauling and drying 2017 crops continues to move higher, driving by bullish factors and supply and demand in the petroleum complex.

Wheat Outlook - There’s no reason to believe the wheat market has potential for big gains into 2018. But it’s not time to throw in the towel yet on either old crop in storage or new crop planned for harvest next year.

Soybean Outlook - Growers hoping to make money on 2017 crop soybeans they’re starting to harvest can pin their hopes on three factors that should drive prices in both the short and long run. Any or all could move the market higher or lower into 2018. 

Corn Outlook - Whether or not the corn market has mettle into harvest should be easy to tell. Charts provide clear direction for the market’s short-term trend. December corn made a spike low Aug. 31 at $3.4425, a level it held in the wake of USDA’s Sept. 12 crop report. If that level doesn’t hold, futures face another quick test at the $3.4125 expiration settlement for September futures last week. Weakness now isn’t unusual, of course.

Fertilizer Outlook - Growers needing fall nitrogen should be pushing for deals before harvest to avoid likely higher prices later this fall. The fertilizer market globally has a firm tone despite crop prices that remain sluggish.

Financial Outlook - The cheap money party isn’t quite over yet, but the Federal Reserve has sounded “last call,” a move that could have significant impacts on agriculture.