Kevin Van Trump, Founder

April 8, 2016

1 Min Read

Soybean bulls are talking about the fact many private analysts have recently pulled back their estimate for Brazilian production. It seems that many of them got a bit too optimistic and were projecting Brazil's production to be north of 101-102 MMTs. The USDA is has been at 100 MMTs and the others are starting to come back down to their levels. In fact, CONAB, just yesterday, reduced their estimate from just north of 101 MMTs down to just under 99 MMTs.

The problem is we are still talking about Brazil harvesting another round of record production. The bulls are also happy to see better than expected export sales.

There's some debate among many inside the trade about how the USDA will play their cards next Tuesday when they release the April supply & demand report. The bulls think the USDA could trim ending stock estimates on improved export sales, while the bears believe the number will be moving higher.

Technically, many traders are keeping a close eye on the $9 level vs. the contract. There's talk that a close below that level could re-open the door to the downside. As a producer I'm staying patient right now with hedges in place and hoping for higher prices in order to make some additional cash-sales.

As a spec, the traditional fundamentals continue to tell me to be short, but the true action of the market is keeping me uncertain and on the sideline. Don't forget: The trade is eager to see Monday's Malaysian Palm Oil report, updated USDA numbers and Friday's latest NOPA data.

Next week could be a wild one for soybean prices.


About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump


Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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