Farm Progress

Soybean bulls backpedal as prices give back recent gains

Kevin Van Trump, Founder

August 26, 2016

2 Min Read

Soybean bears took a big swing at the market as prices have now fallen by almost -50 cents form this Mondays high.

There's a lot of talk inside the trade that the current record setting yield and total production estimate here in the U.S. could eventually end up working itself higher. I reported several weeks ago that while traveling out and around the country the soybean crop looked huge and extremely strong.

The USDA is reporting similar findings as their weekly crop-condition estimate remains the second best in history. Will the final yield push north of 50 bushels per acre like several insiders are now forecasting...who knows? There' also more evidence of the global soybean crop getting larger as the IGC is now estimating 325 MMT,s will be produced, up from 321 MMTs last month and 316 MMTs a year ago.

Keep in mind the USDA is currently forecasting 330.4 MMTs. The bears are also talking about Chinese demand slowing down a bit and import complications into China starting to hit the headlines. The bulls are starting to talk about more cases of "Sudden Death Syndrome" (SDS) starting to show up more regularly in fields across many important production areas. Bulls are also thinking the extreme winds and rains associated with the tropical storms and hurricanes brewing off the coast will eventually wreak havoc on U.S. weather and cause more widespread complications.

Pro Farmer Crop Tour ended with scouts reporting Iowa's pod count at 1224.28.

The Minnesota pod count was reported at 1107.60 vs. the 3-year average of 1006.73.   

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About the Author

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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