The September 2013 WASDE report from USDA projects corn and feed grain supplies higher this month. The average yield is up nearly 1 bushel from last month, now at 155.3 bushels per acre. Soybean production for the current market year is down from last month due to lower soybean, cottonseed and peanut production. The average soybean yield is down 1.4 bushels from last month, now at 41.2 bushels per acre.
U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013-2014 are projected higher this month as forecast increases in corn and sorghum production more than offset declines in projected beginning stocks for the same crops. Corn production is forecast 80 million bushels higher at a record 13.8 billion bushels. The national average corn yield is forecast at 155.3 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from last month. Higher yields for the Central Plains and across the South more than offset yield reductions for Iowa and North Dakota.
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Corn supplies for 2013-2014 are projected 18 million bushels higher due to increased production; however, projected imports are reduced 5 million bushels and beginning stocks are down 58 million bushels on lower imports and higher use projections for 2012-2013. Projected corn use for 2013-2014 is unchanged. Ending stocks for 2013-2014 are projected 18 million bushels higher. The projected season-average farm price for corn is lowered 10¢ at both ends of the range to $4.40-5.20 per bushel.
Total corn use for 2012-2013 is projected 55 million bushels higher. Corn used in the production of ethanol is raised 15 million bushels based on stronger-than-expected August ethanol production as indicated by weekly ethanol production data from the Energy Information Administration. Partly offsetting is a 5-million-bushel reduction in corn used for sweeteners. Corn exports are raised 20 million bushels based on the latest information from the U.S. Bureau of Census and August grain inspections. Projected feed and residual use is raised 25 million bushels reflecting the limited amount of new-crop corn available for use before September 1 due to delayed 2013 crop maturity.
The 2012-2013 season-average farm price for corn is lowered 5¢ per bushel from the midpoint of last month’s projected range with the lower prices reported for July and August. At $6.90 per bushel, the 2012-2013 price remains a record and well above the previous record of $6.22 per bushel in 2011-2012.
U.S. oilseed production for 2013-2014 is projected at 93.2 million tons, down 3 million from last month due to lower soybean, cottonseed, and peanut production. Soybean production is projected at 3.149 billion bushels, down 106 million due to lower yield prospects, especially in the western Corn Belt. The soybean yield is forecast at 41.2 bushels per acre, down 1.4 from last month.
Soybean exports are reduced 15 million bushels to 1.37 billion reflecting reduced supplies and increased competition from South America. Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels to 1.655 billion reflecting lower projected soybean meal exports and domestic soybean meal consumption. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 150 million bushels, down 70 million. Other changes for 2013-2014 include reduced soybean oil production and exports. The 2012-2013 supply and demand estimates include a 5-million-bushel increase in soybean imports to a record 40 million and a 5-million-bushel increase in crush. Ending stocks remain unchanged at 125 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $11.50-13.50 per bushel, up $1.15 on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $360-400 per short ton, up $55.00 at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are projected at 43-47¢ per pound, down 1¢ at the midpoint as large global vegetable oil supplies pressure prices.
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