Farm Progress

Second thoughts

Funds wary of commodities again.

Bryce Knorr 1, Senior Market Analyst, Farm Futures

August 18, 2018

2 Min Read
maciek905/Thinkstock

Funds run hot and cold on commodities. This week the flow was bearish again overall, though there were a few bright spots for agriculture.
 
Here’s what funds were up to through Tuesday, Aug. 14, when the CFTC collected data for its latest Commitment of Traders.

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Trimmed sails
Big speculators bought for a couple of weeks but that money flow halted in the wake of the USDA report. Funds added 18,492 contracts back on to their bearish bet in crops and livestock. Investors buying index funds to gain exposure to commodities were mostly flat on the week, however.

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Small shorts
Big speculators returned to selling the corn market this week, adding 5,527 contracts back on to their modest net short position. They likely covered some of those bearish bets later in the week.

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Hundred grand
Big speculators sold soybeans this week before news that trade talks with China could restart. These hedge funds added 9,510 contracts to their bearish bet, which moved above 100,000 contracts for the first time since January.

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Near record
Big speculators added to their bearish bet in soybean oil again this week, selling a net 3,876 contracts to take the short position close to the record set earlier this summer.
 

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Not crushed
Record crush for July was reported this week thanks to strong margins driven by soybean meal. Not surprisingly, big speculators added to their bullish bet in the product, buying a net 9,749 contracts.

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Filling up
Big speculators bought soft red winter wheat again this week, adding 3,203 net contracts on to their small bullish bet. Still, that’s quite a change after being short SRW for more than four years.

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Investment grade
Big speculators added to their bullish bet in hard red winter wheat again last week, buying a net 4,914 contracts. But the real news came from index traders, who pushed their net long position to its second highest level ever, the most in 5 ½ years.

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Turning around
Large spring wheat traders bought again this week, just three weeks after taking their bearish bet to a record.

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Oil dump
Money managers sold nearly $2.5 billion worth of crude oil futures and options this week, the largest amount all summer.

About the Author(s)

Bryce Knorr 1

Senior Market Analyst, Farm Futures

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