If it seems like you have read this forecast before, that’s because it’s very similar to ones you’ve read nearly all summer and fall. The forecasts haven’t always proven out, but in this “Jekyll and Hyde year” so far, with rainy spells followed by dry spells and cooler-than-normal weather followed by far above-normal temperatures, it’s difficult to know what might lie ahead.

Temperatures were well below normal during the Indiana State Fair, or most of it, benefiting fairgoers and increasing attendance. Then several days in a row of 90-plus-degree-F weather from mid-September into the first few days of fall seemed to turn the season upside down. The high temperature on one day in that stretch broke a record set more than 120 years ago. 

Mother Nature seems to have her months mixed up. Putting all that aside, Ken Scheeringa, assistant Indiana state climatologist, says he will stick with what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association long-term forecasters see for November at this point.

Warm trend
The current long-term forecast calls for above-normal temperatures across most of the U.S., Scheeringa says. Even so, the actual percentage that it will be warmer than normal is 40% over much of Indiana, and about 33% over southwestern Indiana. He suggests thinking of it as you would percentages of rain or snow for a daily forecast.

If there is a 40% chance of rain, you’re likely not going to cut hay, for example. Yet that doesn’t mean it will definitely rain.

The other point Scheeringa makes is that even if the prediction holds and it’s warmer than normal, there could be periods of above-normal temperatures followed by a cool spell, much like the pattern that has unfolded all summer.

When it comes to precipitation, there isn’t much to offer in terms of guidance, Scheeringa says. The odds are equal for normal, below-normal or above-normal precipitation. There is simply nothing definite in weather patterns that long-term forecasters can hang their hats on and make a call for the Midwest on precipitation, he says.