When USDA’s August Crop Report came out predicting 170 bushels per acre of corn for Michigan, it had more than few farmers’ eyebrows raised at what most thought was a lofty prediction. So when the Corn Marketing Program of Michigan concluded its field checks in 32 counties and announced a projected average yield of 177.5 bushels per acre for the state, farmers wanted to know exactly how that figure was derived.

They got the chance to hear from the CMPM staff, which conducted the field checks, during the third annual 2017 Between the Rows Tour. The tour made eight stops across Lower Michigan and more than 500 turned out to hear the crop predictions, not only for corn, but soybeans, as well.

MacKenzy Blair from Michigan Agricultural Commodities says Michigan is expecting a huge crop of soybeans and is projected to be 8 million bushels over last year’s total. However, the latest out of the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service says the bushel-per-acre prediction slides a bushel to 48 bushels per acre, since Blair’s report.

The method
CMPM staff checked 10 to 12 cornfields per county for a total of 375 yield samples and calculated county-by-county yield averages. The statewide average was weighted based on the percentage of harvested acres that come from each county.

Jim Zook, executive director of CMPM, says he was a little surprised. “In our original projections before heading to the fields, we thought we’d bring in a crop equal to, or a little less, than last year,” he says. “Now, I definitely believe the yields will be better than last year. However, since conducting the checks, we’ve not had any additional rain to put weight on the ears, so we probably can pull back some on those yields.”

In factoring yield, the industry standard is 80,000 corn kernels per bushel. However for the CMPM field tests, a 90,000-per-bushel standard was used to allow for a buffer. Zook says given conditions since the checks, it may be even more than 90,000 as kernels may be even smaller with less weight per kernel.

It was noted that during the growing season, there were some areas that had too much water and others not enough.

Theresa Sisung, CNMP advocacy and outreach director, says, “The crop is there. Genetics are doing what they are supposed to do.”

Both irrigated and nonirrigated cornfields were checked, but Sisung says there were more nonirrigated.

Zook adds, “We learned this year, as the crop emerged, uniformity of the crop was better this year than in past years within the field,” he says. “Once it was planted, it was pretty uniform, and it seemed to stay that way through the growing season. We had good pollination — most ears had kernels to the tip of the ear. And, for the most part, there were good growing conditions.”

During the tour, which was co-sponsored by Michigan Agricultural Commodities and included marketing and agronomy updates, Chad Hubble, a BASF representative from the west side of Michigan, says this year, “Preemergent herbicides worked OK, but post worked better.”

Weed resistance was also a point of concern brought up during the meeting as Hubble says waterhemp is a weed on the loose. “And we’re running out of weapons,” he says. “It’s important that we don’t rely on one mode of action.”

Zook says the tour provides an opportunity for farmers to get together to hear the latest updates and valuable data that may help as they go into harvest and assist as they begin planning for next year.

“We know that the price has put people in a cautious mode,” Zook says. “Hearing where we think the yields are and understanding our process, I think it may have offered a little relief from that nervousness. Having more corn than expected can help offset a lower price per bushel.”

USDA’s September Crop Production report
The September Crop Production report, as of Sept. 1, made the following predictions:

• The average corn yield in Michigan is expected to be 169 bushels per acre, up 12 bushels from 2016, but down 1 bushel from the Aug. 1 forecast.

• For soybeans, a yield of 48 bushels per acre is expected, down 2.5 bushels from last year, and down 1 bushel from August’s estimate.

• Sugarbeet yield in Michigan is forecast at 29.9 tons per acre, down 1 ton from last month, and down 0.9 tons per acre from 2016.

• Nationally, corn production is forecast at 14.2 billion bushels, down 6% from last year, but up less than 1% from the August forecast. Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, yields are expected to average 169.9 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushel from the August forecast, but down 4.7 bushels from 2016. If realized, this will be the third-highest yield and production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.5 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast, but down 4% from 2016.

• U.S. soybean production is forecast at a record 4.43 billion bushels, up 1% from August and up 3% from last year. Based on Sept. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 49.9 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from last month, but down 2.2 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record-high 88.7 million acres, unchanged from August, but up 7% from 2016.

• National production of sugarbeets for the 2017 crop year is forecast at 36.2 million tons, down 2% from last year. Producers expect to harvest 1.09 million acres, down 3% from last year. Expected yield is forecast at 33.3 tons per acre, an increase of 0.6 ton from last year.