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March 2014 WASDE: Corn, soybean ending stocks lowered

March 2014 WASDE: Corn, soybean ending stocks lowered

The USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on March 10. U.S. corn ending stocks are lowered 25 million bushels and the average price is narrowed to $4.25-4.75 per bushel. U.S. soybean stocks were lowered 5 million bushels from last month, and prices increased 25¢ on each end to $12.20-13.70.


Projected U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2013-14 are reduced with higher corn exports and lower oats imports. Corn exports are projected 25 million bushels higher on stronger world imports and the rising pace of shipments in recent weeks. Continued strong export sales also support the higher figure. Projected corn ending stocks are lowered 25 million bushels.

The season-average farm price for corn is narrowed 5¢ on both ends of the projected range to $4.25-4.75 per bushel. Global coarse grain supplies for 2013-14 are projected 1.4 million tons higher with larger corn beginning stocks for Indonesia, higher corn production for China, and higher barley production for Australia. Partly offsetting is a reduction in expected sorghum output for Australia as a continuation of hot, dry conditions have sharply eroded prospects for this year’s sorghum crop.


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Global coarse grain imports for 2013-14 are raised 1.3 million tons with higher corn imports for Indonesia and the European Union and higher barley imports for China. Higher expected corn and barley feeding in these countries drive the import increases. European Union corn exports are lowered, but more than offset by this month’s increase for the United States.

Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2013-14 are raised slightly with higher corn stocks in China and Indonesia more than offsetting lower barley stocks in the European Union and the reductions in corn and oats stocks in the United States.


U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2013-14 include higher imports and exports, reduced crush and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean exports are raised 20 million bushels to a record 1.53 billion reflecting continued strong sales and shipments through February. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels to 1.69 billion reflecting weaker-than-expected domestic soybean meal use through the first quarter of the marketing year.

Soybean stocks are projected at 145 million bushels, down 5 million from last month. Soybean oil stocks are reduced on lower production and increased exports. Other soybean oil changes include reduced use for biodiesel and an offsetting increase for food, feed, and other industrial use.

Soybean and soybean product prices are all projected higher this month. The season-average price range forecast for soybeans is raised 25¢ on both ends of the range to $12.20-13.70 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 36-39¢ per pound, up 1.5¢ at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $450-490 per short ton, up $25 at the midpoint.

Global oilseed production for 2013-14 is projected at 504.3 million tons, down 1.7 million from last month as reduced soybean and copra production are only partly offset by increases for rapeseed, sunflowerseed and peanuts. Foreign production, projected at 407.0 million tons, accounts for all of the change. Brazil soybean production is projected at 88.5 million tons, down 1.5 million mainly reflecting hot, dry weather in the south when much of the crop was in the flowering and filling stages. Soybean production is also reduced for Paraguay due to the extended period of hot, dry weather.

Global oilseed supplies, exports, and ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected lower this month while crush is projected higher. Soybean crush is projected higher for the European Union, Paraguay and Zambia. Lower soybean stocks in the United States, Brazil and Paraguay are only partly offset by higher rapeseed stocks in China. Global oilseed stocks are projected at 84.0 million tons, down 1.9 million.


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