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Here's another 2017 cattle pricing prediction

Thinkstock Photos cattle eating at bunk
One international firm predicts fed-cattle pricing will average $1.10 to $1.14 this year, on a quarterly-average basis
French-based banking firm says fed cattle could hit average quarterly averages around $1.12 per pound.

An international banking firm says fed cattle could range in average price from $1.10 to $1.14 per pound.

Analysts for Societe Generale, a French multinational banking and financial services company headquartered in Paris, said recently, "We believe that most of the negative news for cattle is already priced in, and cattle prices are near the bottom of the downward cycle. Cattle prices are currently below the cost of production for cow-calf operators and are also hurting the profitability of feed yards."

They projected quarterly average prices for fed cattle:

  • Q1 2017 -- $1.14 per pound
  • Q2 2017 -- $1.11 per pound
  • Q3 2017 -- $1.10 per pound
  • Q4 2017 -- $1.12 per pound

"We do not expect cattle prices to move sharply higher from current levels in the near term due to still-high inventories and slowly declining retail beef prices," they said.

The analysts made these observations:

Grazing operations continue to grow cattle outside feedlots longer.

Average weight of cattle placed in feedlots during October 2016 declined for the first time since June 2015.

Cattle on feed at the end of October were 1% fewer than in 2015, and the total number of cattle placements in feedlots fell 5% year-over-year.

They also said they expect higher production costs and lower cattle prices will result in a further decline in placement, lending support to live-cattle prices despite growing cattle inventory.

For comparison, University of Illinois economists said recently that fed-cattle prices are likely to average about $105 for the year 2017. Most analysts are calling for continued increase in total beef cattle numbers this year, adding to large amounts of protein in wholesale and retail market channels.

TAGS: Beef
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