Farm Progress

Funds turn bearish on soybeans

Fast money sold agriculture even before trade war rekindled.

Bryce Knorr 1, Senior Market Analyst, Farm Futures

June 16, 2018

2 Min Read
maciek905/Thinkstock

While some traders focused on bullish USDA reports this week, fund managers had already made up their mind, turning bearish on soybeans for the first in four months. That wasn’t all they sold. 

Here’s what funds were up to through Tuesday, June 12, when the CFTC collected data for its latest Commitment of Traders put out on Friday.

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Lost love

Agriculture lost favor again with funds this week. Big speculators dumped 107,797 contracts with selling focused on corn and the soy complex. Investors using index funds to gain exposure to commodities also lightened their net long position by another 29,205 contracts.

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Losing faith

Big speculators are still long a little corn, but they moved ever closer to turning bearish this week. These hedge funds trimmed 55,844 off bullish bets in corn as of Tuesday, and sold more the rest of the week as well.

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Short-sided

Big speculators turned bearish on soybeans again this week, selling a net 47,988 contracts to assume a small net short position according to the CFTC data. They were net short 11,442 contracts as of Tuesday and sold more the rest of the week.

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Double dip

Big speculators sold more soybean oil this week – 11,262 net contracts – to take their bearish bet close to the level it reached a month ago.

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Broken link

Soybean meal has been the strong link of the soybean complex, and big speculators still have a net long position in the production. But these hedge funds cut their bullish bets by a net 11,027 this week.

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Not so soft

Wheat followed the rest of the market lower this week, but funds were buying earlier in the week. They covered another 2,122 contracts of their net short position as of Tuesday, taking the bearish bet down to 11,595 contracts before starting the sell again.

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Still bullish

Big speculators were still bullish on hard red winter wheat, at least earlier in the week, adding 6,077 contracts to their net long position, which rose to its highest level in 10 months.

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Down time

Large traders had no love for spring wheat, flipping to a small bearish posture by selling a net 2,844 contracts this week.

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Enough, already?

Money managers finally stopped selling crude oil this week, adding 1,613 contracts back on to their net long position. A meeting of OPEC in the coming week could decide whether that trend continues.

 

About the Author(s)

Bryce Knorr 1

Senior Market Analyst, Farm Futures

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