Farm Progress

Funds close in on bearish shift in soybeans

Big speculators split on sentiment towards agriculture.

Bryce Knorr 1, Senior Market Analyst, Farm Futures

June 9, 2018

2 Min Read
maciek905/ThinkstockPhotos

Funds continued to dump holdings in commodities this week, but selling was not across the board. Big players again focused bearish sentiment on a few key contracts.
 
Here’s what funds were up to through Tuesday, June 5, when the CFTC collected data for its latest Commitment of Traders put out on Friday.

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Jumping ship

Funds overall slashed bullish bets in agriculture by more than 150,000 contracts this week, as crop prices spiraled lower. Big speculators accounted for 111,867 of the reduction. Index funds used by investors to gain exposure to commodities were responsible for the rest. Still, funds were mostly buying wheat, cotton and livestock, so they’re were completely bearish.

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Focus on corn

Fund selling was heaviest in the corn market. Big speculators slashed 64,224 contracts off their net long position, while index traders sold a net 44,788 contracts, pressing futures out of their seasonal uptrend.

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Split decision.

Big speculators sold the soy complex last week, cutting 44,608 contracts off their bullish bet in soybeans, which was down to 36,546 contracts. But index traders were modest buyers on the week.

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Extended play

Big speculators continued to increase bearish bets on soybean oil, adding 6,827 contracts to their net short position. Index traders were very small buyers overall.

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Downtime

Big speculators increased liquidation of their net long position in soybean meal, cutting 13,373 contracts as futures broke their uptrend. Index traders were small buyers.

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Contrary play

Wheat futures sold off over the past couple of weeks, but big speculators continued to cover their once large short position in soft red winter wheat. That bullish bet was down by another 5,528 contracts this week and now is at just 13,717 lots. Big speculators were short a net 168,186 contracts in December.

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Hard turn

Big speculators and index traders were light buyers of hard red winter wheat last week, extending bullish bets on the class.

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Bears feast

Large traders cut their net long position in spring wheat by two thirds last week as prices in Minneapolis faltered.

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Bottom of the barrel

Money managers weren’t selling crude oil as aggressively this week as in the past. But they still trimmed $706 million off their net long position as liquidation continued. In all, funds have dumped around $12 billion in futures and options, taking 40% off their position.

 

About the Author(s)

Bryce Knorr 1

Senior Market Analyst, Farm Futures

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