Farm Progress

Fund selling in crops accelerates ahead of reports

Big speculators dump ag on trade fears but like pain at the pump.

Bryce Knorr 1, Senior Market Analyst, Farm Futures

June 30, 2018

2 Min Read
maciek905/Thinkstock

Changing U.S. international policies came home to roost in the markets this week, affecting the flow of money in different ways. Protectionist trade policies caused investors to flee agriculture, but a shift in Middle East strategy sent money into energy.
 
Here’s what funds were up to through Tuesday, June 26, when the CFTC collected data for its latest Commitment of Traders put out on Friday.

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Over and out
Big speculators turned bearish on agriculture for the first time since the end of January, moving from a net long to a net short position in crops and livestock this week by dumping more than 100,000 contracts. Investors using index funds to gain exposure to commodities also sold, but only about half a much.

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Bears have their day
Corn led the way down for bears, as big speculators sold 43,045 contracts to turn net short on corn for the first time in nearly five months. But these hedge funds are net short only 8,042 contracts. In November that bearish bet was short 264,349 contracts.

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$2 window
Big speculators sold soybeans again this week, extending their bearish bet by another 23,035 contracts. Index traders sold almost that much, helping futures break $2 off spring highs.

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Up tick
Vegetable oil attracted a little short covering this week because weaker currency values supported competing palm oil. Big speculators are still short soybean oil but cut that bearish by 5,914 contracts though index traders were selling.

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Running for cover
Big speculators are still long soybean meal, but their bullish bet fell again this week, dropping by 16,295 contracts.

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Bottom feeders
Soft red winter wheat keeps trying to confirm a bottom, but traders aren’t so sure. Big speculators remained bearish this week, though they added only 2,944 contracts to their net short position.

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Liquid asset
Big speculators kept on selling hard red winter this week as prices plunged, cutting another 13,629 contracts off their net long position. They’re still bullish, but only by 59,164 contracts.

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Back seat
Bulls ceded control of the spring wheat market and bearish USDA reports didn’t help. Large traders sold again this week before the numbers came out, adding 1,353 contracts to their net short position.

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Loose change
After dumping crude oil positions for most of 2018, money manager filled up their tanks again this week after the U.S. pressured allies to stop importing from Iran. The fast money bought $5.4 billion worth of crude oil futures and options as prices jumped to their highest level Since 2014.

About the Author(s)

Bryce Knorr 1

Senior Market Analyst, Farm Futures

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