Farm Progress

More pressure Is placed on United States soybean yields to be high

The production hiccup in Argentina ultimately puts more pressure on the U.S. to produce a good crop of soybeans.

Kevin Van Trump, Founder

April 4, 2018

1 Min Read

Soybean traders continue to propose questions about potential "trade wars". Even though there has been no formal announcement, there's many in the market who believe China is clearly pushing more buying interest towards Brazil.

There also seems to be more concern surrounding NAFTA, as President Trump starts to take a harder stance on Nicaraguan immigrants pouring into the U.S. across the Mexican border. Essentially the President has said he will pull out of NAFTA if Mexico isn't willing to better police their border and stop allowing drug dealers and criminals from Central America to freely cross into U.S. territories.

Bulls continue to point towards South American supplies being down close to -15 MMTs compared to last years crop. I continue to believe the production hiccup in Argentina ultimately puts more pressure on the U.S. to produce a good crop.

In other words, the average U.S. yield needs stay north of 50 bushels per acre or the trade is going to start getting a bit more nervous, especially if U.S. planted acres stay sub-90 million.

Monthly NOPA data released yesterday showed processors crushed 165 million bushels, about what the trade was expecting. If there was any surprise, it was probably the massively large soybean oil stocks number.

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About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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