Farm Progress

Should You be Selling Soybeans?

Kevin Van Trump, Founder

July 9, 2013

1 Min Read

Soybean bulls are excited about a couple of circumstances: obviously the old-crop equation is still incredibly difficult to solve, and with excessive rain the past few days slowing the wheat harvest  (57% vs. 78% last year at this time), delays in planting double-crop soybeans behind wheat is becoming more of a reality, hence fewer bean acres going in the ground. From where I sit, until the old-crop equation is solved, which looks to be several weeks away, this is going to remain an extremely volatile and wild tone to this market. Meaning dangerous to the upside on occasions. Spec's should remain very cautious, keeping positions very small and manageable.

Before you get overly excited about new-crop soybeans just keep in mind the crop is now rated 27% higher in the good/excellent category than last year. I should also point out that just 7% of this years crop is rated very poor/poor vs.  27% of the crop last year at this time. Take note that six states generally make up around 60% of our nations soybean production, the percentage of these states' soybean crop currently rated good/excellent are: MN 63%; IA 66%; IL 73%; OH 74%; IN 75%; NE 76%.

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About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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