You’re likely getting ready to head to the field to begin spring planting in the coming days or weeks, but do not forget about your corn marketing plan.

What’s happened

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the likelihood of quiet, sideways trade for corn futures into the March Prospective Plantings report, and in the week or two after it. That quiet, sideways price action did occur, and now a heads up that the monotone price lull is likely coming to a close.

Traders will now be monitoring U.S. export demand, ethanol demand, weather in Brazil on the safrinha corn crop and spring planting conditions here in the United States. Once the U.S. crop is half planted, traders will quickly focus on summer weather patterns, with corn futures potentially gearing up for a summer rally.

From a marketing perspective

If you still are holding old crop corn yet, you’re likely wondering when the summer high will occur. While there is no magic, absolute answer, history does suggest that there is a window of time to focus on, to be ready to make those sales.

Below is a chart showing the “summer price high” and date for July corn futures the past 24 years. The data focuses on the dates of April 1 until First Notice Day for the July futures contract, which is usually near the last business day of June.

Quick takeaways:

You’ll also notice there is no specific rhyme or reason as to the date of the price high. Sometimes the price high is in conjunction with a USDA report, and sometimes it is in conjunction with changing weather conditions.

The bottom line is the summer price high often occurs when you’re busy wrapping up spring planting, and fretting over whether the corn crop will grow, as the upcoming summer forecast may look hot and dry.

But during those moments of uncertainty regarding crop production size and weather scares is often when the market responds and may trade higher, and you need to be ready to capture the opportunity! Be disciplined and be ready.

Prepare yourself

Get ready, the corn market may rally in the coming weeks due to a weather scare and if it does the price rally will likely be fast and furious.

And remember prices often come crashing down as fast (or faster) than when they rallied, leaving you with mere days or minutes to capture the rally. Finally, make sure that you’re also mindful not only of old crop sales, but new crop cash sale targets as well.  

Reach Naomi Blohm at 800-334-9779, on X (previously Twitter): @naomiblohm, and at [email protected].

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