For the second year in a row, the Kansas hard red winter wheat crop is coming out of dormancy in mid-February.

Marion County farmer Paul Penner noted a green-up in his fields on Feb. 15 and questioned "is it too early?"

That may depend, according to Romulo Lollato, wheat specialist at Kansas State University, who noted that how long it stays warm between cold snaps and how much progress the crop makes during growing days determines how quickly it will become vulnerable to a freeze.

If the crop merely greens up and tillering begins and the growing point stays below the ground, then occasional freezing temperatures will not do substantial harm. If jointing occurs and the growing point gets above the ground, then main tillers could be killed by a freeze.

Depending on what conditions rule during the remainder of the growing season, even freeze damage after green-up can be overcome. For example, the crop also broke dormancy by mid- to late February. As in some areas this year, moisture could be a big factor.

Early growth means early water use. If soil moisture is abundant, which it mostly is this year, and timely rains continue, then that early water use may not make that much difference. In 2016, many farmers were hit by both freeze and drought damage early in the growing season. And then came an unseasonably cool and wet April and May, and farmers harvested a record wheat crop, even in the some of the driest areas of the state.

This year, huge swaths of southwest and west-central Kansas wheat has yet to emerge because of extremely dry conditions last fall. Added moisture from a heavy ice storm in January, followed by light snows, may bring some of that wheat up as temperatures hit daily highs in the 70s and 80s for several days in a row.

Traditionally, K-State statistics show late-emerged wheat has less yield potential than a crop that gets up and growing before first freeze in the fall. However, again, weather patterns like those of 2016 can prove that wheat has more yield potential than many producers realize.